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BIP-indexierte Kredite für Griechenland

Author

Listed:
  • Marcel Fratzscher
  • Christoph Große Steffen
  • Malte Rieth

Abstract

Greece finds itself at the crossroads. There is the imminent question if Greece should apply for a third public support programme. Government officials are confronting European partners with new calls for a de facto haircut on its outstanding debt. Another option would be to swap existing loans from the European support programs into GDP-linked loans. As a result, interest payments would be linked to economic conditions in Greek. This would, firstly, help to stabilise the debt ratio even under a weaker growth performance. It increases the repayment probability of Greek debt and lowers overall default risk, also on the remaining outstanding debt. Secondly, barriers to reform are lowered through GDP-indexation of debt, which increases the ownership of Greece in the reform process. Thirdly, an implicit deferral of interest payments helps Greece in the short run by lowering the pressure to enforce pro-cyclical fiscal policy. Finally, European creditor countries have the outlook to receive higher repayments in the long-run if the Greek economy starts growing again. Griechenland steht am Scheideweg. Die Frage eines dritten Hilfsprogramms ist akut. Die griechische Regierung fordert einen weiteren – de facto öffentlichen – Schuldenschnitt. Eine andere Option wäre, öffentliche Kredite in BIP-indexierte Kredite umzuwandeln. Die Zinszahlungen wären dann an die Entwicklung des griechischen Bruttoinlandsprodukts gekoppelt. Dies würde erstens die Wahrscheinlichkeit einer Zahlungsunfähigkeit Griechenlands und damit auch das Ausfallrisiko für den deutschen Steuerzahler reduzieren. Vor allem ließe sich die angestrebte Stabilisierung der griechischen Schuldenquote auch in schwächeren Wachstumsszenarien erreichen. Zweitens würden BIP-indexierte Kredite stärkere Anreize für Griechenland setzen, Eigenverantwortung für die Reformen zu übernehmen und damit deren Erfolgschancen zu verbessern. Drittens würden indexierte Kredite die griechische Regierung kurz- bis mittelfristig durch eine zeitliche Verschiebung der Zinszahlungen entlasten, so dass sie weniger gezwungen wäre, prozyklische Fiskalpolitik zu verfolgen. Viertens würden die Kreditgeber profitieren, da langfristig die Rückzahlungen der Kredite höher ausfallen könnten, wenn die griechische Wirtschaft sich erholt und wieder wächst.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcel Fratzscher & Christoph Große Steffen & Malte Rieth, 2014. "BIP-indexierte Kredite für Griechenland," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 81(31/32), pages 739-749.
  • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwob:81-31-1
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    File URL: http://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.471601.de/14-31-1.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Achim Wambach & Ines Läufer, 2015. "Europäische Wirtschafts- und Währungsunion: Lernen aus der Krise," Otto-Wolff-Institut Discussion Paper Series 02/2015, Otto-Wolff-Institut für Wirtschaftsordnung, Köln, Deutschland.
    2. Stefan Homburg & Carsten Hefeker & Christian Keuschnigg & Klaus Weyerstraß & Markus Brunnermeier & Wolfgang Quaisser & Lars P. Feld, 2014. "Staatsschuldenkrise: Zeitbombe für die Währungsunion?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 67(15), pages 03-30, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    GDP-linked loans; fiscal policy; debt crisis; international financial institutions;

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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