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"Moving" and Marrying


  • FFF1Michael NNN1Bracher

    (Independent researcher)

  • FFF2Gigi NNN2Santow

    (Independent researcher)

  • FFF2Susan NNN2Watkins

    (University of Pennsylvania)


We use a microsimulation model to estimate the proportions of rural Malawian brides and grooms who are already HIV positive when they marry. The model, a demographic model of reproduction and mortality overlaid with a model of disease transmission, incorporates behavioural input data derived from the second round of the Malawi Diffusion and Ideational Change Project, which was conducted in three areas of rural Malawi in 2001. We estimate that HIV infection is present in between 13 and 20 per cent of couples. Although young women are more likely to be HIV positive than men of the same age, as a result of their low ages at marriage only around two per cent of brides are estimated to be HIV positive.

Suggested Citation

  • FFF1Michael NNN1Bracher & FFF2Gigi NNN2Santow & FFF2Susan NNN2Watkins, 2003. ""Moving" and Marrying," Demographic Research Special Collections, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 1(7), pages 207-246, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:dem:drspec:v:1:y:2003:i:7

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Sobotka, Tomáš, 2002. "Ten years of rapid fertility changes in the European post-communist countries. Evidence and interpretation," Research Reports 02-01, University of Groningen, Population Research Centre (PRC).
    2. Tomas Frejka & Gérard Calot, 2001. "Cohort Reproductive Patterns in Low-Fertility Countries," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 27(1), pages 103-132.
    3. repec:dgr:rugprc:02-01 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Easterlin, Richard A., 1987. "Birth and Fortune," University of Chicago Press Economics Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 2, number 9780226180328, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Philip Anglewicz & Hans-Peter Kohler, 2009. "Overestimating HIV infection:," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 20(6), pages 65-96, February.
    2. M. Giovanna Merli & Sara Hertog, 2010. "Masculine sex ratios, population age structure and the potential spread of HIV in China," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 22(3), pages 63-94, January.

    More about this item


    Africa; HIV/AIDS; Malawi; micro-simulation;

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General


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