Between two worlds: Cohort fertility dynamics before, during, and after the transition to a market economy in Hungary – A decomposition analysis

Background: The collapse of state socialism and Hungary’s transition to a market economy after 1989 greatly changed societal structures, including patterns of fertility and education. Objective: This study examines whether changes in the completed cohort fertility rate (CFR) among Hungarian women born between 1920 and 1982 resulted from shifts in educational composition or fertility within educational groups. Methods: Using Kitagawa’s decomposition method, we split CFR change into structural and behavioural effects. We compare female birth cohorts whose main childbearing occurred during the pre-transition, transition, and post-transition periods of the socialist regime change, relying on data from six full Hungarian censuses (1970–2022). Results: Structural effects dominated in the pre-transition cohort, behavioural effects in the post-transition cohort, while both were small and offsetting in the transition cohort (1960–1969). In all cohorts, women with primary education made the largest overall contribution to CFR change, mainly due to their declining population share. Parity patterns also shifted, as lower childlessness and higher second-birth rates supported CFR in the pre-transition cohort, whereas rising childlessness and declining second births reduced CFR in the post-transition cohort. Conclusions: Overall, fertility change in Hungary shifted from structural to behavioural drivers, with women born in 1960–1969 displaying a transitional pattern that supports their classification as a transition cohort. Contribution: Using a cohort perspective, the paper shows how changes in the education–fertility relationship reflect a shift from structural to behavioural drivers of fertility decline.