IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/dem/demres/v39y2018i48.html

Order matters: The effect of premarital pregnancy on second childbearing in Japan

Author

Listed:
  • Fumiya Uchikoshi

    (Harvard University)

  • Ryohei Mogi

    (Universitat Pompeu Fabra)

Abstract

Background: Although nonmarital childbearing is uncommon in Japan, in contrast to the trends observed in other countries, the number of premarital pregnancies has increased. While prior studies have examined the determinants of premarital pregnancy, little is known about its consequence on individuals’ subsequent childbearing. Objective: The aim of this study is to investigate the effect of premarital pregnancy on a second childbirth in Japan. Methods: We use Japanese General Social Survey Life Course Study data, which covers women ages 28–42 in 2007. We use discrete time logistic regressions to estimate the individual risk of experiencing a second childbirth. Additionally, because being pregnant before marriage occurs selectively depending on individual demographic characteristics, we attempt to balance the propensity to experience premarital pregnancy by using propensity score matching. Results: The results reveal that experiencing premarital pregnancy causes a higher likelihood of second childbirth at earlier and later ages, defined as month at risk starting from one year after the first birth. Conclusions: Our results support the life course change hypothesis. This predicts that premarital pregnancy, which is highly likely to be unintended, increases the risk of bearing a second child, possibly by relatively reducing both women’s attachment to paid employment and the opportunity cost of having a second child. Contribution: Premarital pregnancy may affect women’s subsequent life course through the influence of the strong linkage between marriage and fertility and the Japanese work culture. The results could be applicable to other East Asian countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Fumiya Uchikoshi & Ryohei Mogi, 2018. "Order matters: The effect of premarital pregnancy on second childbearing in Japan," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 39(48), pages 1305-1330.
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:39:y:2018:i:48
    DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2018.39.48
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol39/48/39-48.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.4054/DemRes.2018.39.48?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. James M. Raymo & Miho Iwasawa & Larry Bumpass, 2008. "Cohabitation and Family Formation in Japan," ISER Discussion Paper 0714, Institute of Social and Economic Research, The University of Osaka.
    2. James Raymo & Kelly Musick & Miho Iwasawa, 2015. "Gender Equity, Opportunity Costs of Parenthood, and Educational Differences in Unintended First Births: Insights from Japan," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 34(2), pages 179-199, April.
    3. Brienna Perelli-Harris & Michaela Kreyenfeld & Wendy Sigle-Rushton & Renske Keizer & Trude Lappegård & Aiva Jasilioniene & Caroline Berghammer & Paola Di Giulio, 2012. "Changes in union status during the transition to parenthood in eleven European countries, 1970s to early 2000s," Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 66(2), pages 167-182, July.
    4. James Raymo & Larry L. Bumpass & Miho Iwasawa, 2004. "Marital Dissolution in Japan," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 11(14), pages 395-420.
    5. Brienna Perelli-Harris, 2014. "How Similar are Cohabiting and Married Parents? Second Conception Risks by Union Type in the United States and Across Europe," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 30(4), pages 437-464, November.
    6. Nick Parr, 2010. "Satisfaction with life as an antecedent of fertility," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 22(21), pages 635-662.
    7. S. Philip Morgan & Ronald Rindfuss, 1999. "Reexamining the link of early childbearing to Marriage and to subsequent fertillty," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 36(1), pages 59-75, February.
    8. John Billy & Nancy Landale & Steven McLaughlin, 1986. "The effect of marital status at first birth on marital dissolution among adolescent mothers," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 23(3), pages 329-349, August.
    9. Karen Guzzo & Sarah Hayford, 2011. "Fertility Following an Unintended First Birth," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 48(4), pages 1493-1516, November.
    10. George A. Akerlof & Janet L. Yellen & Michael L. Katz, 1996. "An Analysis of Out-of-Wedlock Childbearing in the United States," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 111(2), pages 277-317.
    11. James Raymo & Miho Iwasawa & Larry Bumpass, 2009. "Cohabitation and family formation in Japan," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 46(4), pages 785-803, November.
    12. Larry Bumpass & R. Raley & James Sweet, 1995. "The changing character of stepfamilies: implications of cohabitation and nonmarital childbearing," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 32(3), pages 425-436, August.
    13. Li Ma & Ester L. Rizzi, 2017. "Entry into first marriage in China," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 37(36), pages 1231-1244.
    14. Giovanni Cerulli, 2022. "Econometric Evaluation of Socio-Economic Programs," Advanced Studies in Theoretical and Applied Econometrics, Springer, edition 2, number 978-3-662-65945-8, July-Dece.
    15. R. Raley, 2001. "Increasing fertility in cohabiting unions: evidence for the second demographic transition in the united states?," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 38(1), pages 59-66, February.
    16. Dawn Upchurch & Lee Lillard & Constantijn Panis, 2002. "Nonmarital childbearing: Influences of education, marriage, and fertility," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 39(2), pages 311-329, May.
    17. Zhang, Junfu & Song, Xue, 2007. "Fertility Differences between Married and Cohabiting Couples: A Switching Regression Analysis," IZA Discussion Papers 3245, IZA Network @ LISER.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bernice Kuang & Ann Berrington & Sindhu Vasireddy & Hill Kulu, 2025. "The changing inter-relationship between partnership dynamics and fertility trends in Europe and the United States: A review," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 52(7), pages 179-228.
    2. Bridget Brew & Abigail Weitzman & Kelly Musick & Yasamin Kusunoki, 2020. "Young women's joint relationship, sex, and contraceptive trajectories: Evidence from the United States," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 42(34), pages 933-984.
    3. Julia Mikolai & Ann Berrington & Brienna Perelli-Harris, 2018. "The role of education in the intersection of partnership transitions and motherhood in Europe and the United States," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 39(27), pages 753-794.
    4. Kate H. Choi & Rachel E. Goldberg, 2020. "The Social Significance of Interracial Cohabitation: Inferences Based on Fertility Behavior," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 57(5), pages 1727-1751, October.
    5. Janetta Nestorová Dická & Filip Lipták, 2024. "Regional fertility predictors based on socioeconomic determinants in Slovakia," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 1-43, September.
    6. Frisco, Michelle L. & Weden, Margaret M. & Lippert, Adam M. & Burnett, Kristin D., 2012. "The multidimensional relationship between early adult body weight and women’s childbearing experiences," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 74(11), pages 1703-1711.
    7. Kelly Musick & Katherine Michelmore, 2018. "Cross-National Comparisons of Union Stability in Cohabiting and Married Families With Children," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 55(4), pages 1389-1421, August.
    8. Roberta Rutigliano & Gøsta Esping-Andersen, 2018. "Partnership Choice and Childbearing in Norway and Spain," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 34(3), pages 367-386, August.
    9. Oluwatobi Abel Alawode, 2021. "Analysis of Non-Marital Fertility in Nigeria and Implications for Intervention and Future Research," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-18, July.
    10. Pau Baizan & Wanli Nie, 2024. "The Impact of Education on Fertility During the Chinese Reform Era (1980–2018): Changes Across Birth Cohorts and Interaction with Fertility Policies," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 40(1), pages 1-36, December.
    11. James Raymo & Yanfei Zhou, 2012. "Living Arrangements and the Well-Being of Single Mothers in Japan," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 31(5), pages 727-749, October.
    12. Wei-hsin Yu & Yuko Hara, 2020. "Job characteristics, marital intentions, and partner-seeking actions: Longitudinal evidence from Japan," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 43(52), pages 1509-1544.
    13. Christine Schnor, 2014. "The Effect of Union Status at First Childbirth on Union Stability: Evidence from Eastern and Western Germany," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 30(2), pages 129-160, May.
    14. Paula England & Man Xu, 2025. "U.S. Women’s First Family-Forming Transitions to Cohabitation or Birth: Differences by Racial and Socioeconomic Disadvantage Challenge the Theory of the Second Demographic Transition," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 44(4), pages 1-35, August.
    15. Paulina Gałęzewska & Brienna Perelli-Harris & Ann Berrington, 2017. "Cross-national differences in women's repartnering behaviour in Europe: The role of individual demographic characteristics," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 37(8), pages 189-228.
    16. Maria Winkler-Dworak & Eva Beaujouan & Paola Di Giulio & Martin Spielauer, 2019. "Simulating Family Life Courses: An Application for Italy, Great Britain, and Scandinavia," VID Working Papers 1908, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna.
    17. Kelly Musick, 2007. "Cohabitation, nonmarital childbearing, and the marriage process," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 16(9), pages 249-286.
    18. John Hobcraft, 2008. "The timing and partnership context of becoming a parent," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 19(34), pages 1281-1322.
    19. Michael Brien & Lee Lillard & Linda Waite, 1999. "Interrelated family-building behaviors: Cohabitation, marriage, and nonmarital conception," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 36(4), pages 535-551, November.
    20. Brienna Perelli-Harris & Stefanie Hoherz & Trude Lappegård & Ann Evans, 2019. "Mind the “Happiness” Gap: The Relationship Between Cohabitation, Marriage, and Subjective Well-being in the United Kingdom, Australia, Germany, and Norway," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 56(4), pages 1219-1246, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:39:y:2018:i:48. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Editorial Office (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.