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On the pace of fertility decline in sub-Saharan Africa

Author

Listed:
  • David Shapiro

    (Pennsylvania State University)

  • Andrew Hinde

    (University of Southampton)

Abstract

Background: This descriptive finding examines the comparative pace of fertility decline in sub-Saharan Africa, relative to Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Northern Africa. Objective: We seek to determine if fertility decline has been slower in sub-Saharan Africa than elsewhere in the developing world. Methods: United Nations 2017 estimates of national fertility are used in assessing the comparative pace of fertility decline, and the four regions are compared in terms of how far they are into their fertility transition. Results: The data shows clearly that fertility decline in sub-Saharan Africa, still at a comparatively early stage, has been considerably slower than the earlier declines in Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Northern Africa at comparable stages of the transition, and displays less within-region heterogeneity than the transitions in these other regions. Conclusions: The slower pace of fertility decline in sub-Saharan Africa, in conjunction with the high current fertility levels in the region, means that in the absence of policies seeking to accelerate fertility decline, sub-Saharan Africa will continue to experience rapid population growth that in turn will constrain its development. Contribution: Presentation of data in a novel way (Figures 2‒4, and associated calculations) unambiguously demonstrates the slow pace of fertility decline in sub-Saharan Africa compared with other regions of the world.

Suggested Citation

  • David Shapiro & Andrew Hinde, 2017. "On the pace of fertility decline in sub-Saharan Africa," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 37(40), pages 1327-1338.
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:37:y:2017:i:40
    DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2017.37.40
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John Bongaarts & John Casterline, 2013. "Fertility Transition: Is sub-Saharan Africa Different?," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 38, pages 153-168, February.
    2. John Bryant, 2007. "Theories of Fertility Decline and the Evidence from Development Indicators," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 33(1), pages 101-127, March.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Thomas Spoorenberg, 2019. "Forty years of fertility changes in the Sahel," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 41(46), pages 1289-1314.
    2. Philippe Bocquier & Ashira Menashe-Oren & Wanli Nie, 2023. "Migration’s contribution to the urban transition: Direct census estimates from Africa and Asia," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 48(24), pages 681-732.
    3. Mark Wheldon & Vladimíra Kantorová & Joseph Molitoris & Aisha Dasgupta, 2024. "A new look at contraceptive prevalence plateaus in sub-Saharan Africa: A probabilistic approach," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 50(31), pages 899-928.
    4. David Shapiro & Andrew Hinde, 2020. "Laggards in the global fertility transition," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 18(1), pages 123-140.
    5. Tomáš Sobotka, 2020. "Introduction: the relevance of studying fertility across time and space," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 18(1), pages 1-24.
    6. Hannes Weber, 2018. "Higher acceptance rates of asylum seekers lead to slightly more asylum applications in the future," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 39(47), pages 1291-1304.
    7. Khandaker Jafor Ahmed & Yan Tan & Dianne Rudd, 2024. "Exploring the relationship between changes in fertility and disasters: a review of the literature," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 41(1), pages 1-29, March.
    8. Michael Ekholuenetale & Olah Uloko Owobi & Benedict Terfa Shishi, 2022. "Socioeconomic Position in Modern Contraceptive Uptake and Fertility Rate among Women of Childbearing Age in 37 Sub-Saharan Countries," World, MDPI, vol. 3(4), pages 1-18, October.
    9. Mathias Lerch & Thomas Spoorenberg, 2020. "The emergence of birth limitation as a new stage in the fertility transition in sub-Saharan Africa," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 42(30), pages 827-858.
    10. Bruno D. Schoumaker & David A. Sánchez‐Páez, 2024. "Disruptions in Educational Progress and Fertility Dynamics by Educational Level: Unraveling the Link between Education and Fertility Stalls in Sub‐Saharan Africa," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 50(1), pages 59-85, March.
    11. Ben Malinga John, 2023. "Neglected forces of fertility variation in sub-Saharan Africa: the role of marital dissolution and repartnering," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2023-031, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.

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    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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