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Sources of error and bias in methods of fertility estimation contingent on the P/F ratio in a time of declining fertility and rising mortality

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  • Tom Moultrie

    (University of Cape Town (UCT))

  • Rob Dorrington

    (University of Cape Town (UCT))

Abstract

Almost all commonly used indirect fertility estimation methods rely on the P/F ratio. As originally conceived, the ratio compares cumulated cohort fertility with cumulated period fertility on the basis of three, fairly strong, assumptions. The intention of this paper is to interrogate what happens to the results produced by the P/F ratio method as each of these three assumptions is violated, first independently, and then concurrently. These investigations are important given the generally poor quality of census data collected in developing countries, particularly sub-Saharan Africa, and the radically altering demographic conditions associated with a generalised HIV/AIDS epidemic in the region.

Suggested Citation

  • Tom Moultrie & Rob Dorrington, 2008. "Sources of error and bias in methods of fertility estimation contingent on the P/F ratio in a time of declining fertility and rising mortality," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 19(46), pages 1635-1662, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:19:y:2008:i:46
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    File URL: http://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol19/46/19-46.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. N. Ryder, 1964. "The process of demographic translation," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 1(1), pages 74-82, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Raouf Boucekkine & Rodolphe Desbordes & Hélène Latzer, 2009. "How do epidemics induce behavioral changes?," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 233-264, September.
    2. Leontine Alkema & Adrian E. Raftery & Patrick Gerland & Samuel J. Clark & Francois Pelletier, 2012. "Estimating trends in the total fertility rate with uncertainty using imperfect data," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 26(15), pages 331-362, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    developing countries; estimation; fertility; HIV/AIDS; indirect techniques;

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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