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Anticipatory analysis and its alternatives in life-course research

Author

Listed:
  • Jan M. Hoem

    (Stockholms Universitet)

  • Michaela Kreyenfeld

    (Hertie School of Governance)

Abstract

Procedures that seek to explain current behavior by future outcomes (anticipatory analysis) constitute a widespread but problematic approach in life-course analysis because they disturb the role of time and the temporal order of events. Nevertheless the practice is often used, not least because it easily produces useful summary measures like the median age at first childbearing and the per cent permanently childless in various educational groups, defined by ultimate attainment. We use an empirical example to demonstrate the issues involved and to propose an alternative "non-anticipatory" research strategy, which, however, does not equally easily provide summary measures.

Suggested Citation

  • Jan M. Hoem & Michaela Kreyenfeld, 2006. "Anticipatory analysis and its alternatives in life-course research," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 15(16), pages 461-484, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:15:y:2006:i:16
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    File URL: http://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol15/16/15-16.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Anders Björklund, 2006. "Does family policy affect fertility?," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 19(1), pages 3-24, February.
    2. Jan M. Hoem & Michaela Kreyenfeld, 2006. "Anticipatory analysis and its alternatives in life-course research," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 15(17), pages 485-498, November.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Martin Klesment & Allan Puur, 2010. "Effects of education on second births before and after societal transition: Evidence from the Estonian GGS," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 22(28), pages 891-932, May.
    2. Doreen Huschek & Helga A.G. De Valk & Aart C. Liefbroer, 2010. "Timing of first union among second-generation Turks in Europe," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 22(16), pages 473-504, March.
    3. Cornelia Mureşan & Jan M. Hoem, 2009. "The negative educational gradients in Romanian fertility," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2009-019, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    4. Ermisch, John & Steele, Fiona, 2016. "Fertility expectations and residential mobility in Britain," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 68878, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    5. Kryštof Zeman, 2007. "Transition of nuptiality and fertility onset in the Czech Republic since the 1990s: the role of women’s education and its expansion," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2007-017, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    6. Gunnar Andersson & Marit Rønsen & Lisbeth B. Knudsen & Trude Lappegård & Gerda Neyer & Kari Skrede & Kathrin Teschner & Andres Vikat, 2009. "Cohort fertility patterns in the Nordic countries," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 20(14), pages 313-352, April.
    7. David Clifford, 2009. "Spousal separation, selectivity and contextual effects: exploring the relationship between international labour migration and fertility in post-Soviet Tajikistan," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 21(32), pages 945-975, December.
    8. Martin Klesment & Allan Puur & Leen Rahnu & Luule Sakkeus, 2014. "Varying association between education and second births in Europe," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 31(27), pages 813-860, October.
    9. David P. Lindstrom & Silvia E. Giorguli-Saucedo, 2007. "The interrelationship of fertility, family maintenance and Mexico-U.S. Migration," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 17(28), pages 821-858, December.
    10. Cornelia Muresan & Jan M. Hoem, 2010. "The negative educational gradients in Romanian fertility," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 22(4), pages 95-114, January.
    11. Daniele Vignoli & Irene Ferro, 2009. "Rising marital disruption in Italy and its correlates," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 20(4), pages 11-36, January.
    12. Cordula Zabel, 2009. "Do imputed education histories provide satisfactory results in fertility analysis in the Western German context?," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 21(6), pages 135-176, August.
    13. Jan M. Hoem & Dora Kostova & Aiva Jasilioniene & Cornelia Mureşan, 2009. "The structure of recent first-union formation in Romania," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2009-002, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    14. Eleonora Mussino & Alyson A. van Raalte, 2008. "Fertility of migrants: a comparative study between Italy and Russia," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2008-026, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    15. Michaela Kreyenfeld, 2006. "Der Einfluss der ‚Wende’ auf bildungsspezifische Fertilitätsunterschiede in Ostdeutschland," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2006-025, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    16. Setsuya Fukuda, 2009. "Shifting economic foundation of marriage in Japan: the erosion of traditional marriage," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2009-033, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    17. Dorothea Rieck, 2006. "Transition to second birth - the case of Russia," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2006-036, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    18. Anja Vatterrott, 2015. "Socialisation or Institutional Context: What Determines the First and Second Birth Behaviour of East–West German Migrants?," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 31(4), pages 383-415, October.
    19. Jan M. Hoem & Michaela Kreyenfeld, 2006. "Anticipatory analysis and its alternatives in life-course research," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 15(17), pages 485-498, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    anticipatory analysis; fertility by educational attainment;

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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