IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/dem/demres/v13y2005i14.html

Official population statistics and the Human Mortality Database estimates of populations aged 80+ in Germany and nine other European countries

Author

Listed:
  • Dmitri A. Jdanov

    (Max-Planck-Institut für Demografische Forschung)

  • Vladimir Shkolnikov

    (Max-Planck-Institut für Demografische Forschung)

  • Rembrandt D. Scholz

    (Rostocker Zentrum zur Erforschung des Demografischen Wandels)

Abstract

A systematic comparison of the Human Mortality Database and official estimates of populations aged 80+ is presented. We consider statistical series for East and West Germany and also for Denmark, England and Wales, France, Finland, Hungary, the Netherlands, Russia, Sweden, and Switzerland. The Human Mortality Database (HMD, www.mortality.org) methodology relies on the methods of extinct and almost extinct generations. HMD estimates are precise if the quality of death data is high and the migration among the elderly is negligible. The comparisons between the HMD and the official populations are not fully appropriate for the 1990s since the HMD calculations are related to official population estimates. A significant overestimation of the male population aged 80+ and especially 90+ between the censuses of 1970 and 1987 was found in West Germany. The relative surplus of men aged 90+ increased from 5 to 20 percent, which expressed in absolute numbers indicates an increase from 2 to 10 thousand. In 1971-1987 the official death rates have fallen dramatically to implausibly low values. In 1987-88 death rates based on the official populations suddenly jumped to the HMD death rates due to the census re-estimation. In the 1990s an accelerated decrease in male death rates has resumed. Among other countries, the relative and absolute deviations from the HMD estimates were especially high in Russia, Hungary, and England and Wales. Regression analysis reveals common factors of the relative deviation from the HMD populations. The deviation tends to decrease with time, increase with age, be higher during inter-census periods than in census years, and to decrease after the introduction of population registers.

Suggested Citation

  • Dmitri A. Jdanov & Vladimir Shkolnikov & Rembrandt D. Scholz, 2005. "Official population statistics and the Human Mortality Database estimates of populations aged 80+ in Germany and nine other European countries," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 13(14), pages 335-362.
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:13:y:2005:i:14
    DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2005.13.14
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol13/14/13-14.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.4054/DemRes.2005.13.14?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. A. R. Thatcher, 1999. "The long‐term pattern of adult mortality and the highest attained age," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 162(1), pages 5-43.
    2. Ira Rosenwaike, 1979. "A new evaluation of United States census data on the extreme aged," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 16(2), pages 279-288, May.
    3. Mark Hill & Samuel Preston & Ira Rosenwaike, 2000. "Age reporting among white Americans aged 85+: Results of a record linkage study," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 37(2), pages 175-186, May.
    4. repec:cai:popine:popu_p2001_13n1_0156 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. A. Roger Thatcher & Väinö Kannisto & Kirill F. Andreev, 2002. "The Survivor Ratio Method for Estimating Numbers at High Ages," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 6(1), pages 1-18.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hans-Martin von Gaudecker & Rembrandt D. Scholz, 2006. "Lifetime earnings and life expectancy," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2006-008, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    2. Tom Wilson & Jeromey Temple, 2020. "The rapid growth of Australia’s advanced age population," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 37(4), pages 377-389, December.
    3. Suryo Adi Rakhmawan & Tahir Mahmood & Nasir Abbas, 2025. "Deep learning-based mortality surveillance: implications for healthcare policy and practice," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 42(1), pages 1-25, March.
    4. Mikko Myrskylä, 2010. "The effects of shocks in early life mortality on later life expectancy and mortality compression: A cohort analysis," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 22(12), pages 289-320.
    5. Dmitri A. Jdanov & Domantas Jasilionis & Eugeny L. Soroko & Roland Rau & James W. Vaupel, 2008. "Beyond the Kannisto-Thatcher Database on Old Age Mortality: an assessment of data quality at advanced ages," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2008-013, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    6. Michał Myck, 2011. "Policy challenges in Germany and Poland: what can we learn from the SHARE data," Ekonomia journal, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw, vol. 28.
    7. Sergey Timonin & Inna Danilova & Evgeny Andreev & Vladimir M. Shkolnikov, 2017. "Recent Mortality Trend Reversal in Russia: Are Regions Following the Same Tempo?," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 33(5), pages 733-763, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dmitri A. Jdanov & Rembrandt D. Scholz & Vladimir M. Shkolnikov, 2005. "Official population statistics and the Human Mortality Database estimates of populations aged 80+ in Germany and nine other European countries," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2005-010, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    2. Dmitri A. Jdanov & Domantas Jasilionis & Eugeny L. Soroko & Roland Rau & James W. Vaupel, 2008. "Beyond the Kannisto-Thatcher Database on Old Age Mortality: an assessment of data quality at advanced ages," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2008-013, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    3. Kirill F. Andreev, 2004. "A Method for Estimating Size of Population Aged 90 and over with Application to the U.S. Census 2000 Data," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 11(9), pages 235-262.
    4. Tom Wilson & Jeromey Temple, 2020. "The rapid growth of Australia’s advanced age population," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 37(4), pages 377-389, December.
    5. Soumaïla Ouedraogo, 2020. "Estimation of older adult mortality from imperfect data: A comparative review of methods using Burkina Faso censuses," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 43(38), pages 1119-1154.
    6. Ira Rosenwaike & Leslie Stone, 2003. "Verification of the ages of supercentenarians in the United States: Results of a matching study," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 40(4), pages 727-739, November.
    7. Booth, Heather, 2006. "Demographic forecasting: 1980 to 2005 in review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 547-581.
    8. Maxim S. Finkelstein & Veronica Esaulova, 2005. "On mixture failure rate ordering," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2005-019, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    9. Marilia Miranda Fortes Gomes & Cássio M. Turra, 2009. "The number of centenarians in Brazil: Indirect estimates based on death certificates," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 20(20), pages 495-502.
    10. Annamaria Olivieri & Ermanno Pitacco, 2016. "Frailty and Risk Classification for Life Annuity Portfolios," Risks, MDPI, vol. 4(4), pages 1-23, October.
    11. Stéphane Helleringer & Gilles Pison & Almamy Kanté & Géraldine Duthé & Armelle Andro, 2014. "Reporting Errors in Siblings’ Survival Histories and Their Impact on Adult Mortality Estimates: Results From a Record Linkage Study in Senegal," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 51(2), pages 387-411, April.
    12. Yahia Salhi & Pierre-Emmanuel Thérond & Julien Tomas, 2016. "A Credibility Approach of the Makeham Mortality Law," Post-Print hal-01232683, HAL.
    13. Camille Delbrouck & Jennifer Alonso-García, 2024. "COVID-19 and Excess Mortality: An Actuarial Study," Risks, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-27, March.
    14. Marília R. Nepomuceno & Cássio M. Turra, 2020. "The Population of Centenarians in Brazil: Historical Estimates from 1900 to 2000," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 46(4), pages 813-833, December.
    15. A. Roger Thatcher & Siu Lan Karen Cheung & Jean-Marie Robine & Shiro Horiuchi, 2010. "The compression of deaths above the mode," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 22(17), pages 505-538.
    16. Pitacco, Ermanno, 2004. "Survival models in a dynamic context: a survey," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 279-298, October.
    17. Breen, Casey, 2024. "Black-White Mortality Crossover: New Evidence from Social Security Mortality Records," SocArXiv ax9u3, Center for Open Science.
    18. Jia Liu & Jackie Li, 2019. "Beyond the highest life expectancy: construction of proxy upper and lower life expectancy bounds," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 159-181, June.
    19. repec:plo:pbio00:3000148 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Matthew Dupre & Alexis Franzese & Emilio Parrado, 2006. "Religious attendance and mortality: Implications for the black-white mortality crossover," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 43(1), pages 141-164, February.
    21. Andreea Balan-Cohen, 2008. "Healthy, Wealthy, and Wise? The Impact of the Old Age Assistance Program on Elderly Mortality in the United States," Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University 0719, Department of Economics, Tufts University.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:13:y:2005:i:14. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Editorial Office (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.