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A Fast, Easy, and Efficient Estimator for Multiparty Electoral Data

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  • Honaker, James
  • Katz, Jonathan N.
  • King, Gary

Abstract

Katz and King have previously developed a model for predicting or explaining aggregate electoral results in multiparty democracies. Their model is, in principle, analogous to what least-squares regression provides American political researchers in that two-party system. Katz and King applied their model to three-party elections in England and revealed a variety of new features of incumbency advantage and sources of party support. Although the mathematics of their statistical model covers any number of political parties, it is computationally demanding, and hence slow and numerically imprecise, with more than three parties. In this paper we produce an approximate method that works in practice with many parties without making too many theoretical compromises. Our approach is to treat the problem as one of missing data. This allows us to use a modification of the fast EMis algorithm of King, Honaker, Joseph, and Scheve and to provide easy-to-use software, while retaining the attractive features of the Katz and King model, such as the t distribution and explicit models for uncontested seats.

Suggested Citation

  • Honaker, James & Katz, Jonathan N. & King, Gary, 2002. "A Fast, Easy, and Efficient Estimator for Multiparty Electoral Data," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(1), pages 84-100, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:cup:polals:v:10:y:2002:i:01:p:84-100_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Smeets, Valerie & Warzynski, Frederic, 2006. "Job creation, job destruction and voting behavior in Poland," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 503-519, June.
    2. Coe, Cari An, 2006. "Farmer Participation in Market Authorities of Coffee Exporting Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 34(12), pages 2089-2115, December.
    3. Yasmine Bekkouche & Julia Cage, 2018. "The Price of a Vote: Evidence from France, 1993-2014," Working Papers Series 68, Institute for New Economic Thinking.
    4. Bekkouche, Yasmine & Cagé, Julia & Dewitte, Edgard, 2020. "The Heterogeneous Price of a Vote: Evidence from Multiparty Systems, 1993-2017," CEPR Discussion Papers 15150, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Scott Basinger & Damon Cann & Michael Ensley, 2012. "Voter response to congressional campaigns: new techniques for analyzing aggregate electoral behavior," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 150(3), pages 771-792, March.
    6. Nguyen, T.H.A & Laurent, Thibault & Thomas-Agnan, Christine & Ruiz-Gazen, Anne, 2018. "Analyzing the impacts of socio-economic factors on French departmental elections with CODA methods," TSE Working Papers 18-961, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    7. Yasmine Bekkouche & Julia Cage, 2019. "The Heterogeneous Price of a Vote: Evidence from France, 1993-2014," Sciences Po Economics Discussion Papers 2019-09, Sciences Po Departement of Economics.
    8. Agnese Maria Di Brisco & Sonia Migliorati, 0. "A spatial mixed-effects regression model for electoral data," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 0, pages 1-29.
    9. Jens Hainmueller & Holger Lutz Kern, 2005. "Incumbency Effects in German and British Elections: A Quasi- Experimental Approach," Public Economics 0505009, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Dostie, Benoit & Dupré, Ruth, 2012. "“The people's will”: Canadians and the 1898 referendum on alcohol prohibition," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 498-515.

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