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A model for the pension system in Mexico: diagnosis and recommendations

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  • ALONSO, JAVIER
  • HOYO, CARMEN
  • TUESTA, DAVID

Abstract

The reform of the pension system of the Mexican Social Security Institute (IMSS) in 1997, limited the growing fiscal cost of the previous pay-as-you-go scheme. Sixteen years on from its creation, the Retirement Savings System (SAR) has had favourable macroeconomic effects for Mexico, as it has significantly increased financial savings and encouraged the development of local financial markets. However, the employment and pension coverage has not developed as hoped, due to the high rate of informality in the labour market. In addition, the replacement rates (RR) forecast for old-age pensions from the defined-contribution scheme will be low, due to problems exogenous to the pension system, such as low contribution rates and low contribution densities. The main objective of this study is to develop a macroeconomic and actuarial projection model to simulate the expected coverage and RR for the period 2012–2050, within the framework of a demographic and economic forecast that will allow a detailed diagnosis of the current conditions of the pension system. The results reveal the unpromising scenario that the pension system has and will continue to have in the long term, with limited improvements in coverage rates. The possibility of obtaining adequate pensions will be restricted to those who have socioeconomic conditions with a long employment history, who can thus make contributions to their individual accounts. Taking into account this baseline projection scenario, we simulate the expected effects of applying a set of proposals with the aim of tackling the main problems, such as the low coverage, low RR, and low level of participation by young people in the system.

Suggested Citation

  • Alonso, Javier & Hoyo, Carmen & Tuesta, David, 2015. "A model for the pension system in Mexico: diagnosis and recommendations," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(1), pages 76-112, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jpenef:v:14:y:2015:i:01:p:76-112_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Ruiz Estrada, Mario Arturo & Koutronas, Evangelos, 2020. "An introduction to pensionomics," Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science, Universidad ESAN, vol. 25(49), pages 89-100.
    2. Luis Raúl Rodríguez-Reyes & Angel Samaniego & Mireya Pasillas, 2021. "Strategies in Retirement Fund Selection in the Mexican Retirement Market 1997-2018," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 16(TNEA), pages 1-16, Septiembr.
    3. Chabba, Meenakshi & Bhat, Mahadev G. & Sarmiento, Juan Pablo, 2022. "Risk-based benefit-cost analysis of ecosystem-based disaster risk reduction with considerations of co-benefits, equity, and sustainability," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    4. Christoph Freudenberg & Mr. Frederik G Toscani, 2019. "Informality and the Challenge of Pension Adequacy: Outlook and Reform Options for Peru," IMF Working Papers 2019/149, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Carmen Hoyo & David Tuesta, 2013. "Financing retirement with real estate assets: an analysis of Mexico," Working Papers 1335, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies

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