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Day-of-the-Week Effects in Financial Futures: An Analysis of GNMA, T-Bond, T-Note, and T-Bill Contracts

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  • Johnston, Elizabeth Tashijan
  • Kracaw, William A.
  • McConnell, John J.

Abstract

This paper provides a comprehensive study of weekly seasonal effects in GNMA, T-bond, T-note, and T-bill futures returns. Two distinct patterns are found in returns on GNMA, T-bond, and T-note contracts, while no seasonals are noted for T-bill futures. A negative Monday seasonal—similar to the well-known Monday effect in stock returns—is found for GNMA and T-bond contracts. A positive Tuesday seasonal is found on GNMA, T-bond, and T-note contracts. Our evidence indicates that the significance of weekly seasonals depends in an important way on the time period studied. The negative Monday phenomenon occurs only in the data before 1982, while the positive Tuesday effect is present only after 1984. In addition, we find that both seasonal phenomena occur only during months prior to a delivery month. This effect appears to be related to the calendar month. More specifically, the Monday effect is apparently concentrated during February, while the Tuesday effect is concentrated during May.

Suggested Citation

  • Johnston, Elizabeth Tashijan & Kracaw, William A. & McConnell, John J., 1991. "Day-of-the-Week Effects in Financial Futures: An Analysis of GNMA, T-Bond, T-Note, and T-Bill Contracts," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(1), pages 23-44, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:26:y:1991:i:01:p:23-44_00
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    1. Cremers, Martijn & Fleckenstein, Matthias & Gandhi, Priyank, 2021. "Treasury yield implied volatility and real activity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 412-435.
    2. Brian Lucey & Edel Tully, 2005. "Seasonality, Risk And Return In Daily COMEX Gold And Silver Data 1982-2002," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp057, IIIS.
    3. Keef, Stephen P. & Khaled, Mohammed & Zhu, Hui, 2009. "The dynamics of the Monday effect in international stock indices," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 125-133, June.
    4. Laurence E. Blose & Vijay Gondhalekar, 2013. "Weekend gold returns in bull and bear markets," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 53(3), pages 609-622, September.
    5. Frühwirth, Manfred & Sögner, Leopold, 2015. "Weather and SAD related mood effects on the financial market," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 11-31.
    6. Christopher J. Neely & Drew B. Winters, 2005. "Year-end seasonality in one-month LIBOR derivatives," Working Papers 2003-040, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    7. Vicent AragO-Manzana & M Angeles Fernandezizquierdo, 2003. "Monthly seasonality of the returns and volatility of the IBEX-35 index and its futures contract," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(3), pages 129-133.
    8. Mizrach, Bruce & Neely, Christopher J., 2008. "Information shares in the US Treasury market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(7), pages 1221-1233, July.
    9. Yasmeen Idilbi-Bayaa & Mahmoud Qadan, 2022. "Tell Me Why I Do Not Like Mondays," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-22, May.
    10. Boynton, Wentworth & Oppenheimer, Henry R. & Reid, Sean F., 2009. "Japanese day-of-the-week return patterns: New results," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 1-12.
    11. Bruce Mizrach & Christopher J. Neely, 2007. "The microstructure of the U.S. treasury market," Working Papers 2007-052, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    12. Manfred Frühwirth & Paul Schneider & Leopold Sögner, 2010. "The Risk Microstructure of Corporate Bonds: A Case Study from the German Corporate Bond Market," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 16(4), pages 658-685, September.
    13. Venezia, Itzhak & Shapira, Zur, 2007. "On the behavioral differences between professional and amateur investors after the weekend," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 1417-1426, May.
    14. Frank J. Finn & Anthony Lynch & Simon Moore, 1991. "Intra-Week Regularities in Security Returns: Further Australian Evidence," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 16(2), pages 129-144, December.
    15. Stephen Keef & Melvin Roush, 2004. "Day-of-the-week effects: New Zealand bank bills, 1985-2000," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(12), pages 859-873.
    16. Darko Stosic & Dusan Stosic & Irena Vodenska & H. Eugene Stanley & Tatijana Stosic, 2021. "A new look at calendar anomalies: Multifractality and day of the week effect," Papers 2106.06164, arXiv.org.
    17. C.-S. Hsieh & C.-T. Chen, 2012. "Using stochastic dominance criterion to examine the day-of-the-week effect," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(14), pages 1207-1213, July.
    18. Itzhak Venezia, 2018. "Lecture Notes in Behavioral Finance," World Scientific Books, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., number 10751, January.
    19. Cornett, Marcia Millon & Schwarz, Thomas V. & Szakmary, Andrew C., 1995. "Seasonalities and intraday return patterns in the foreign currency futures market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 843-869, August.
    20. Bohl, Martin T. & Goodfellow, Christiane & Bialkowski, Jedrzej, 2010. "Individual investors surpass their reputation: Trading behaviour on the Polish futures market," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 480-492, December.
    21. Kohers, Theodor & Patel, Jayen B., 1996. "An examination of the day-of-the-week effect in junk bond returns over business cycles," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 31-46.
    22. Liano, Kartono, 1995. "A pre-holiday effect in the currency futures market: a note," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 299-304.
    23. Mark D. Griffiths & Drew B. Winters, 1996. "The Relation Between The Federal Funds Cash And Futures Markets," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 359-376, September.
    24. Liano, Kartono & Kelly, G. Wayne, 1995. "Currency futures and the turn-of-month effect," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 1-7.

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