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Does Issue Linkage Work? Evidence from European Alliance Negotiations, 1860 to 1945

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  • Poast, Paul

Abstract

Though scholars widely claim that issue linkage—the simultaneous negotiation of multiple issues for joint settlement—can help states conclude international agreements, there exist some notable skeptics. Resolving this debate requires empirical evidence. However, beyond a few case studies, there exists no direct and systematic evidence that issue linkages actually increase the probability of agreement. I address this lack of direct and systematic evidence by combing original data on failed alliance negotiations with data from the Alliance Treaty Obligations and Provisions (ATOP) database. Using matching techniques, I find that, for alliance negotiations between 1860 to 1945, offers of trade linkage did substantially increase the probability of agreement. Besides confirming issue linkage's ability to help clinch an agreement, this article's research design and evidence have far-reaching implications for the study of negotiations and alliances. The research design illustrates the value of considering the “dogs that didn't bark†as it identifies both successful and failed negotiations. The article's evidence explains the high rate of alliance compliance identified by previous scholars and highlights a need to rethink the alliance formation process.

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  • Poast, Paul, 2012. "Does Issue Linkage Work? Evidence from European Alliance Negotiations, 1860 to 1945," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 66(2), pages 277-310, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:intorg:v:66:y:2012:i:02:p:277-310_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Magnus Lundgren & Stefanie Bailer & Lisa M Dellmuth & Jonas Tallberg & Silvana Târlea, 2019. "Bargaining success in the reform of the Eurozone," European Union Politics, , vol. 20(1), pages 65-88, March.
    2. J Tyson Chatagnier & Haeyong Lim, 2021. "Does the WTO exacerbate international conflict?," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 58(5), pages 1068-1082, September.
    3. Paul Poast, 2013. "Issue linkage and international cooperation: An empirical investigation," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 30(3), pages 286-303, July.
    4. Brandon J. Kinne, 2020. "The Defense Cooperation Agreement Dataset (DCAD)," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 64(4), pages 729-755, April.
    5. Joshua Alley, 2023. "Elite Cues and Public Attitudes Towards Military Alliances," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 67(7-8), pages 1537-1563, August.
    6. Muhammad Kabir, 2019. "The Role of Side Payments in the Formation of Asymmetric Alliances: Forging the US–Pakistan Alliance," Journal of Asian Security and International Affairs, , vol. 6(2), pages 162-188, August.
    7. Adam Kirpsza, 2023. "Quid Pro Quo. The Effect of Issue Linkage on Member States' Bargaining Success in European Union Lawmaking," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(2), pages 323-343, March.
    8. Johannes Müller Gómez, 2023. "Show Me the Money: Side‐Payments and the Implementation of International Agreements in Federal Systems," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 11(3), pages 312-326.
    9. Ert, Eyal & Cohen-Amin, Shier & Dinar, Ariel, 2019. "The effect of issue linkage on cooperation in bilateral conflicts: An experimental analysis," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 134-142.
    10. Maamoun, Nada, 2021. "IEAs and compliance: Do treaty linkages play a role?," ILE Working Paper Series 43, University of Hamburg, Institute of Law and Economics.

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