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An Analysis of Congressional Career Decisions, 1947–1986

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  • Kiewiet, D. Roderick
  • Zeng, Langche

Abstract

Most previous research on congressional career decisions has focused on one of two binary choices—between retiring and running for reelection, or between running for reelection and seeking higher office. But most of the time, representatives face all three choices simultaneously. Employing a “mother logit†model, we estimate the effects of relevant variables both on pairwise comparisons (conditional probabilities) and on the unconditional probabilities of choosing each one of these three alternatives. Probably most intriguing is our finding that a member's age has little or no effect upon the unconditional probability of running for reelection. The interrelatedness of career options is seen particularly clearly in the case of incumbents who had been redistricted out of their seats. When they had an opportunity to run for higher office, they were likely to take it. Only when they lacked such an opportunity were they more likely than other members to opt for retirement.

Suggested Citation

  • Kiewiet, D. Roderick & Zeng, Langche, 1993. "An Analysis of Congressional Career Decisions, 1947–1986," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 87(4), pages 928-941, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:cup:apsrev:v:87:y:1993:i:04:p:928-941_10
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    Cited by:

    1. Aragonès, Enriqueta & Xefteris, Dimitrios, 2012. "Candidate quality in a Downsian model with a continuous policy space," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 464-480.
    2. Jin-Hyuk Kim, 2013. "Determinants of post-congressional lobbying employment," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 107-126, May.
    3. Michael P. Keane & Antonio Merlo, 2010. "Money, Political Ambition, and the Career Decisions of Politicians," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 186-215, August.
    4. Kentaro Fukumoto, 2009. "Systematically Dependent Competing Risks and Strategic Retirement," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 53(3), pages 740-754, July.

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