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The Credit Cycle and the Business Cycle in Canada and the United States: Two Solitudes?

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  • Pierre L. Siklos
  • Brady Lavender

Abstract

Recent events highlight the relationship between credit availability and aggregate output. Macroeconomic models for Canada are estimated to investigate links between non-price lending standards, business loans, and output. US macroeconomic and financial market conditions are allowed to impact the Canadian economy. Responses to financial shocks differ in the two countries. Real-time data have a significant impact on the results. The United States and Canada may be "two solitudes" insofar as the impact of credit conditions is concerned. Differences in the quality of banking supervision and in the effectiveness of monetary policies in the two countries may partially explain the results.

Suggested Citation

  • Pierre L. Siklos & Brady Lavender, 2015. "The Credit Cycle and the Business Cycle in Canada and the United States: Two Solitudes?," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 41(2), pages 109-123, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpp:issued:v:41:y:2015:i:2:p:109-123
    DOI: 10.3138/cpp.2012-103
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    Cited by:

    1. Pang, Ke & Siklos, Pierre L., 2016. "Macroeconomic consequences of the real-financial nexus: Imbalances and spillovers between China and the U.S," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 195-212.
    2. repec:zbw:bofitp:2015_002 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Pang, Ke & Siklos, Pierre L., 2016. "Macroeconomic consequences of the real-financial nexus: Imbalances and spillovers between China and the U.S," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 195-212.
    4. Filardo, Andrew J. & Siklos, Pierre L., 2020. "The cross-border credit channel and lending standards surveys," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).

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