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Comparison of certain dynamic estimation methods of Value at Risk on Polish gas market

Author

Listed:
  • Alicja Ganczarek-Gamrot

    (University of Economics in Katowice)

  • Józef Stawicki

    (Nicolaus Copernicus University)

Abstract

The paper compares the results of the estimation of VaR made using Markov chains as well as linear and non-linear autoregressive models. A comparative analysis was conducted for linear returns of the daily value of the gas base index quoted on the Day-Ahead Market (DAM) of the Polish Power Exchange (PPE) in the period commencing on January 2, 2014 and ending on April 13, 2017. The consistency and independence of the exceedances of estimated VaR were verified applying the Kupiec and Christoffersen tests.

Suggested Citation

  • Alicja Ganczarek-Gamrot & Józef Stawicki, 2017. "Comparison of certain dynamic estimation methods of Value at Risk on Polish gas market," Dynamic Econometric Models, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 17, pages 81-96.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpn:umkdem:v:17:y:2017:p:81-96
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Józef Stawicki, 2016. "Using the First Passage Times in Markov Chain model to support financial decisions on the stock exchange," Dynamic Econometric Models, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 16, pages 37-47.
    2. Christoffersen, Peter F, 1998. "Evaluating Interval Forecasts," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 841-862, November.
    3. Wai-Ki Ching & Michael K. Ng, 2006. "Markov Chains: Models, Algorithms and Applications," International Series in Operations Research and Management Science, Springer, number 978-0-387-29337-0, December.
    4. Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993. "On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December.
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    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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