Measuring the cost of economic fluctuations with preferences that rationalize the equity premium
Lucas (2003) argues that the potential welfare gains from stabilizing the business cycle are small. In fact, he shows that the benefits of eliminating all economic fluctuations are small, especially when compared with the potential gains from other reforms. His estimates are obtained using standard preferences. I show that a model consistent with observed data on asset returns leads to very different conclusions. Calibrating preferences to observed asset market data raises the estimated welfare gains from completely eliminating aggregate fluctuations by approximately two orders of magnitude. Most of the gains, however, come from the elimination of low-frequency contributions.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 43 (2010)
Issue (Month): 2 (May)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://economics.ca/cje/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Web: http://economics.ca/en/membership.php Email: |
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Angelo Melino & Alan X. Yang, 2003.
"State Dependent Preferences Can Explain the Equity Premium Puzzle,"
Review of Economic Dynamics,
Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 6(4), pages 806-830, October.
- Angelo Melino & Alan X. Yang, 2003. "State Dependent Preferences Can Explain the Equity Premium Puzzle," Working Papers melino-03-01, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
- Hansen, Lars Peter & Richard, Scott F, 1987. "The Role of Conditioning Information in Deducing Testable," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 587-613, May.
- Alvarez, Fernando & Jermann, Urban J., 2000.
"Using Asset Prices to Measure the Cost of Business Cycles,"
00-1, University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School, Weiss Center.
- Fernando Alvarez & Urban J. Jermann, 2004. "Using Asset Prices to Measure the Cost of Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(6), pages 1223-1256, December.
- Alvarez, F. & Jermann, U.J., 2000. "Using Asset Prices to Measure the Cost of Business Cycles," Weiss Center Working Papers 00-1, Wharton School - Weiss Center for International Financial Research.
- Fernando Alvarez & Urban J. Jermann, 2000. "Using Asset Prices to Measure the Cost of Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 7978, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Epstein, Larry G & Zin, Stanley E, 1989. "Substitution, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Consumption and Asset Returns: A Theoretical Framework," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(4), pages 937-69, July.
- Philippe Weil, 1989.
"The Equity Premium Puzzle and the Riskfree Rate Puzzle,"
NBER Working Papers
2829, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Weil, Philippe, 1989. "The equity premium puzzle and the risk-free rate puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 401-421, November.
- Phillippe Weil, 1997. "The Equity Premium Puzzle and the Risk-Free Rate Puzzle," Levine's Working Paper Archive 1833, David K. Levine.
- L. Epstein & S. Zin, 2010.
"First order risk aversion and the equity premium puzzle,"
Levine's Working Paper Archive
1400, David K. Levine.
- Epstein, Larry G. & Zin, Stanley E., 1990. "'First-order' risk aversion and the equity premium puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 387-407, December.
- Epstein, Larry G & Melino, Angelo, 1995.
"A Revealed Preference Analysis of Asset Pricing under Recursive Utility,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(4), pages 597-618, October.
- Larry G. Epstein & Angelo Melino, 1993. "A Revealed Preference Analysis of Asset Pricing Under Recursive Utility," NBER Working Papers 4524, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Epstein, Larry G. & Zin, Stanley E., 2001.
"The independence axiom and asset returns,"
Journal of Empirical Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 8(5), pages 537-572, December.
- R. Mehra & E. Prescott, 2010.
"The equity premium: a puzzle,"
Levine's Working Paper Archive
1401, David K. Levine.
- Robert E. Lucas Jr., 2003. "Macroeconomic Priorities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 1-14, March.
- Hansen, Lars Peter & Jagannathan, Ravi, 1991.
"Implications of Security Market Data for Models of Dynamic Economies,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 225-62, April.
- Lars Peter Hansen & Ravi Jagannathan, 1990. "Implications of Security Market Data for Models of Dynamic Economies," NBER Technical Working Papers 0089, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Lars Peter Hansen & Ravi Jagannathan, 1990. "Implications of security market data for models of dynamic economies," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 29, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Thomas Tallarini, .
"Risk-Sensitive Real Business Cycles,"
GSIA Working Papers
1997-35, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cje:issued:v:43:y:2010:i:2:p:405-422. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Prof. Werner Antweiler)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.