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A double clustering algorithm for financial time series based on extreme events

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  • De Luca Giovanni

    (University of Naples Parthenope, Via G. Parisi 13, 80132Naples, Italy)

  • Zuccolotto Paola

    (University of Brescia, C. da S. Chiara 50, 25122Brescia, Italy)

Abstract

This paper is concerned with a procedure for financial time series clustering, aimed at creating groups of time series characterized by similar behavior with regard to extreme events. The core of our proposal is a double clustering procedure: the former is based on the lower tail dependence of all the possible pairs of time series, the latter on the upper tail dependence. Tail dependence coefficients are estimated with copula functions. The final goal is to exploit the two clustering solutions in an algorithm designed to create a portfolio that maximizes the probability of joint positive extreme returns while minimizing the risk of joint negative extreme returns. In financial crisis scenarios, such a portfolio is expected to outperform portfolios generated by the traditional methods. We describe the results of a simulation study and, finally, we apply the procedure to a dataset composed of the 50 assets included in the EUROSTOXX index.

Suggested Citation

  • De Luca Giovanni & Zuccolotto Paola, 2017. "A double clustering algorithm for financial time series based on extreme events," Statistics & Risk Modeling, De Gruyter, vol. 34(1-2), pages 1-12, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:strimo:v:34:y:2017:i:1-2:p:1-12:n:2
    DOI: 10.1515/strm-2015-0026
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Giovanni De Luca & Paola Zuccolotto, 2021. "Regime dependent interconnectedness among fuzzy clusters of financial time series," Advances in Data Analysis and Classification, Springer;German Classification Society - Gesellschaft für Klassifikation (GfKl);Japanese Classification Society (JCS);Classification and Data Analysis Group of the Italian Statistical Society (CLADAG);International Federation of Classification Societies (IFCS), vol. 15(2), pages 315-336, June.
    2. Fuchs, Sebastian & Di Lascio, F. Marta L. & Durante, Fabrizio, 2021. "Dissimilarity functions for rank-invariant hierarchical clustering of continuous variables," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).

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