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Effect of position, usage rate, and per game minutes played on NBA player production curves

Author

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  • Page Garritt L.

    (Departamento de Estadística, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile)

  • Barney Bradley J.

    (Kennesaw State University, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Kennesaw, GA, USA)

  • McGuire Aaron T.

    (Capital One, VA, USA)

Abstract

In this paper, we model a basketball player’s on-court production as a function of the percentiles corresponding to the number of games played. A player’s production curve is flexibly estimated using Gaussian process regression. The hierarchical structure of the model allows us to borrow strength across players who play the same position and have similar usage rates and play a similar number of minutes per game. From the results of the modeling, we discuss questions regarding the relative deterioration of production for each of the different player positions. Learning how minutes played and usage rate affect a player’s career production curve should prove to be useful to NBA decision makers.

Suggested Citation

  • Page Garritt L. & Barney Bradley J. & McGuire Aaron T., 2013. "Effect of position, usage rate, and per game minutes played on NBA player production curves," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 9(4), pages 337-345, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:jqsprt:v:9:y:2013:i:4:p:337-345:n:1
    DOI: 10.1515/jqas-2012-0023
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Page Garritt L & Fellingham Gilbert W & Reese C. Shane, 2007. "Using Box-Scores to Determine a Position's Contribution to Winning Basketball Games," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 3(4), pages 1-18, October.
    2. Ozmen M. Utku, 2012. "Foreign Player Quota, Experience and Efficiency of Basketball Players," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 1-18, March.
    3. Fearnhead Paul & Taylor Benjamin Matthew, 2011. "On Estimating the Ability of NBA Players," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 7(3), pages 1-18, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Marco Sandri & Paola Zuccolotto & Marica Manisera, 2020. "Markov switching modelling of shooting performance variability and teammate interactions in basketball," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 69(5), pages 1337-1356, November.
    2. Paola Zuccolotto & Marco Sandri & Marica Manisera, 2021. "Spatial Performance Indicators and Graphs in Basketball," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 156(2), pages 725-738, August.
    3. Alexander Hinton & Yiguo Sun, 2020. "The sunk-cost fallacy in the National Basketball Association: evidence using player salary and playing time," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(2), pages 1019-1036, August.
    4. Jackson P. Lautier, 2023. "A New Framework to Estimate Return on Investment for Player Salaries in the National Basketball Association," Papers 2309.05783, arXiv.org.

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