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Macroeconomic Productivity Effects of Artificial Intelligence

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  • Saam Marianne

    (84505 ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics and University of Hamburg , Hamburg, Germany)

Abstract

Some observers expect that the current wave of new tools based on artificial intelligence (AI) models, such as the large language models, will have strong effects on labor productivity. I present definitions and classifications that help understanding AI as an economic input. I then review theoretical and empirical arguments about macroeconomic productivity effects of AI and conclude that research has so far found no indication that productivity effects of the diffusion of AI are likely to be higher than those associated with the internet boom around the year 2000. While considerable uncertainty around future effects remains, a recent review and calibration exercise by Acemoglu, D. (2024. The Simple Macroeconomics of AI. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper 32487) suggests that the effects might be a lot lower.

Suggested Citation

  • Saam Marianne, 2024. "Macroeconomic Productivity Effects of Artificial Intelligence," The Economists' Voice, De Gruyter, vol. 21(2), pages 327-333.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:evoice:v:21:y:2024:i:2:p:327-333:n:1013
    DOI: 10.1515/ev-2024-0072
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Saam Marianne, 2024. "The Impact of Artificial Intelligence on Productivity and Employment – How Can We Assess It and What Can We Observe?," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Sciendo, vol. 59(1), pages 22-27, February.
    2. William D. Nordhaus, 2021. "Are We Approaching an Economic Singularity? Information Technology and the Future of Economic Growth," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(1), pages 299-332, January.
    3. Daron Acemoglu, 2025. "The simple macroeconomics of AI," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 40(121), pages 13-58.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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