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The Source of UK Historical Economic Fluctuations: An Analysis Using Long-Run Restrictions

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  • Francis Neville

    (University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill)

Abstract

This paper investigates the source of historical fluctuations in annual UK labor productivity and employment data extending back to the 19th century. Long-run identifying restrictions are used to decompose shocks into technology shocks and other shocks. The UK results show more sample stability than similar historical results found for the U.S. in a companion paper. The short-run impact of technology shocks on labor is found to be negative both before and after WWII, regardless of the data generating process assumed for labor. This suggests that the technology-driven real business cycle hypothesis is strongly rejected for the UK. The decomposition also reveals important changes in the volatility of shocks over time.

Suggested Citation

  • Francis Neville, 2009. "The Source of UK Historical Economic Fluctuations: An Analysis Using Long-Run Restrictions," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-20, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:bejmac:v:9:y:2009:i:1:n:30
    DOI: 10.2202/1935-1690.1956
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-673, September.
    2. Matthew D. Shapiro & Mark W. Watson, 1988. "Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1988, Volume 3, pages 111-156, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Neville Francis & Valerie A. Ramey, 2006. "The Source of Historical Economic Fluctuations: An Analysis Using Long-Run Restrictions," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2004, pages 17-73, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Robert Vigfusson, 2003. "What Happens After a Technology Shock?," NBER Working Papers 9819, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Olivier J. Blanchard & Mark W. Watson, 1986. "Are Business Cycles All Alike?," NBER Chapters, in: The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, pages 123-180, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Faust, Jon & Leeper, Eric M, 1997. "When Do Long-Run Identifying Restrictions Give Reliable Results?," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(3), pages 345-353, July.
    7. Lucas, Robert E., 1977. "Understanding business cycles," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 7-29, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Khan Hashmat & Tsoukalas John, 2013. "Effects of productivity shocks on hours worked: UK evidence," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 13(1), pages 1-31, September.
    2. Rujin, Svetlana, 2019. "What are the effects of technology shocks on international labor markets?," Ruhr Economic Papers 806, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.

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