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The 1990s party realignment of U.S. presidential elections: Geographic sorting of counties by blue or red

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  • Joseph A. Aistrup
  • Binita Mahato
  • John C. Morris

Abstract

Introduction This paper addresses the issue of partisan polarization in the U.S. in presidential voting at the county level. The literature on the growing partisan sorting and/or polarization is extensive, and controversies are pervasive. This paper focuses on the timing and sequence of changes in partisan vote shares at the county level from 1952 through the 2020 election. Methods We apply confirmatory factor analysis to identify the structures of partisan competition in counties from 1952 to 2020, and multiscale geographically weighted regression (MGWR) to uncover the social processes that influence the growing partisan polarization in the U.S. Results We find that the growing partisan segregation coincides with the beginning of a secular change in the structure of partisan competition at the presidential level among counties that has intensified over the past quarter century. Polarization, segregation of partisans in communities, and a rise in sectionalism are the predominant characteristics of this new alignment. Conclusion This study confirms a secular realignment in the structure of party competition among counties in presidential elections starting in 1996 and solidifying in 2008 when Obama is elected. The segregation of counties by dark shades of red or blue is the unique fingerprint of this new alignment that we call the "Geographic Sort" alignment.

Suggested Citation

  • Joseph A. Aistrup & Binita Mahato & John C. Morris, 2023. "The 1990s party realignment of U.S. presidential elections: Geographic sorting of counties by blue or red," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 104(4), pages 636-668, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:socsci:v:104:y:2023:i:4:p:636-668
    DOI: 10.1111/ssqu.13288
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    1. A. Stewart Fotheringham & Ziqi Li & Levi John Wolf, 2021. "Scale, Context, and Heterogeneity: A Spatial Analytical Perspective on the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election," Annals of the American Association of Geographers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 111(6), pages 1602-1621, September.
    2. David A. McGranahan & Timothy R. Wojan & Dayton M. Lambert, 2011. "The rural growth trifecta: outdoor amenities, creative class and entrepreneurial context -super-§," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 11(3), pages 529-557, May.
    3. Nardulli, Peter F., 1995. "The Concept of a Critical Realignment, Electoral Behavior, and Political Change," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 89(1), pages 10-22, March.
    4. Nicholas A. Valentino & David O. Sears, 2005. "Old Times There Are Not Forgotten: Race and Partisan Realignment in the Contemporary South," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 49(3), pages 672-688, July.
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    1. Thomas Longoria & Lynne L. Manganaro, 2023. "The determinants of voting for Republican congressional candidates in the Texas borderlands," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 104(7), pages 1392-1405, December.

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