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Trade balance dynamics and exchange rates: In search of the J‐curve using a structural gravity approach

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  • Harald Badinger
  • Aurélien Fichet de Clairfontaine

Abstract

This paper uses a structural gravity approach, specifying currency movements as trade cost component to derive an empirical trade balance model, which incorporates multilateral resistance terms and accounts for the cross‐country variation in the exchange rate pass‐through into import and export prices. The model is estimated using quarterly bilateral trade flows between 47 countries over the period 2010Q1 to 2017Q2, disaggregated into 97 commodity groups. Our results support the existence of an “aggregate” J‐curve, pooled over commodity groups; at the same time they point to considerable heterogeneity in the trade balance dynamics across industries below the surface of aggregate data.

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  • Harald Badinger & Aurélien Fichet de Clairfontaine, 2019. "Trade balance dynamics and exchange rates: In search of the J‐curve using a structural gravity approach," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(4), pages 1268-1293, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:reviec:v:27:y:2019:i:4:p:1268-1293
    DOI: 10.1111/roie.12426
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    Cited by:

    1. Neary, Peter & Carrère, Céline & Mrázová, Monika, 2020. "Gravity without Apologies: The Science of Elasticities, Distance, and Trade," CEPR Discussion Papers 14473, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Céline Carrère & Monika Mrázová & J Peter Neary, 2020. "Gravity Without Apology: the Science of Elasticities, Distance and Trade," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 130(628), pages 880-910.
    3. Adedoyin Isola Lawal & Afees Adebare Salisu & Abiola John Asaleye & Ezeikel Oseni & Bukola Bose Lawal-Adedoyin & Samuel Olatunde Dahunsi & Emmanuel Oluwasola Omoju & Abigail Oyeronke DickTonye & Eliza, 2022. "Economic Growth, Exchange Rate and Remittance Nexus: Evidence from Africa," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-13, May.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

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