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Valuing Retail Shopping Center Lease Contracts


  • Hoon Cho
  • James D. Shilling


In this article we set up a real option model of retail shopping center leases. The model incorporates the effects of stochastic sales externalities and the possibility of tenant default, and in the presence of these effects, we derive and solve a partial differential equation that can be used to price a lease transaction. The model then sums across all tenants to determine the value of the shopping center. The model generates a number of new predictions, including why a Jorgensonian user cost of capital may overestimate shopping center values, why the general industry practice is to ignore percentage rent payments and tenant default risk in commercial mortgage underwriting and why shopping center owners may not act opportunistically as most observers seem to think they do. Copyright 2007 American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association

Suggested Citation

  • Hoon Cho & James D. Shilling, 2007. "Valuing Retail Shopping Center Lease Contracts," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 35(4), pages 623-649, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:reesec:v:35:y:2007:i:4:p:623-649

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Sally M. Davies & Douglas A. McManus, 1991. "The effects of closure policies on bank risk-taking," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 158, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Flannery, Mark J., 1989. "Capital regulation and insured banks choice of individual loan default risks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 235-258, September.
    3. Frederick T. Furlong & Michael C. Keeley, 1987. "Bank capital regulation and asset risk," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Spr, pages 20-40.
    4. Furlong, Frederick T. & Keeley, Michael C., 1989. "Capital regulation and bank risk-taking: A note," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(6), pages 883-891, December.
    5. Davies, Sally M. & McManus, Douglas A., 1991. "The effects of closure policies on bank risk-taking," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(4-5), pages 917-938, September.
    6. Chan, Yuk-Shee & Kanatas, George, 1985. "Asymmetric Valuations and the Role of Collateral in Loan Agreements," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 17(1), pages 84-95, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. John Clapp & Katsiaryna Bardos & Tingyu Zhou, 2014. "Expansions and Contractions of Major US Shopping Centers," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 48(1), pages 16-56, January.
    2. Thomas J. Miceli & C.F. Sirmans & Geoffrey K. Turnbull, 2009. "Lease Defaults And The Efficient Mitigation Of Damages," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(5), pages 915-930.
    3. Brent Ambrose & Michael Shafer & Yildiray Yildirim, 2015. "The Impact of Tenant Diversification on Spreads and Default Rates for Mortgages on Retail Properties," ERES eres2015_299, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    4. Navarro, Ignacio & Turnbull, Geoffrey K., 2010. "Antichresis leases: Theory and empirical evidence from the Bolivian experience," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 33-44, January.
    5. repec:kap:jrefec:v:56:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s11146-016-9579-7 is not listed on IDEAS

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