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Local Economic Base, Geographic Diversification, and Risk Management of Mortgage Portfolios

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  • John B. Corgel
  • Gerald D. Gay

Abstract

Variability of local economic conditions underlie, in part, the default and prepayment risks of mortgages originated in a metropolitan area. In this study we examine the benefits of diversifying across metropolitan areas for reducing these risks. Employment data for the thirty largest metropolitan areas in the United States, divided into eight industry groups, are analyzed with the aid of factor and principal component analysis to determine if the variances of employment changes across the thirty areas are independent. Independence is investigated to assess the potential for diversification. Mean‐variance portfolio analysis is then used to measure the gains from geographic diversification vis‐a‐vis a set of several alternative strategies for diversification. We conclude that geographic diversification is an important mortgage portfolio objective and that mean‐variance strategies outperform the alternative strategies tested here.

Suggested Citation

  • John B. Corgel & Gerald D. Gay, 1987. "Local Economic Base, Geographic Diversification, and Risk Management of Mortgage Portfolios," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 15(3), pages 256-267, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:reesec:v:15:y:1987:i:3:p:256-267
    DOI: 10.1111/1540-6229.00431
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    Cited by:

    1. Ming Pu & Gang-Zhi Fan & Chunsheng Ban, 2016. "The Pricing of Mortgage Insurance Premiums Under Systematic and Idiosyncratic Shocks," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 83(2), pages 447-474, June.
    2. Alan Tidwell & Yan (Olivia) Lu & Junsoo Lee & Piyali Banerjee, 2023. "Nature of comovements in US state and MSA housing prices," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 51(4), pages 959-989, July.
    3. Mats Wilhelmsson & Jianyu Zhao, 2018. "Risk Assessment of Housing Market Segments: The Lender’s Perspective," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-22, October.
    4. Martin Hoesli & Colin Lizieri & Bryan MacGregor, 1997. "The Spatial Dimensions of the Investment Performance of UK Commercial Property," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 34(9), pages 1475-1494, August.
    5. Tarbert, Heather, 1998. "The long-run diversification benefits available from investing across geographical regions and property type: evidence from cointegration tests1," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 49-65, January.
    6. Stephen Malpezzi & James D. Shilling & Yu Yun Jessie Yang, 2001. "The Stock of Private Real Estate Capital in U.S. Metropolitan Areas," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 22(3), pages 243-270.
    7. Yongheng Deng & Jeffrey D. Fisher & Anthony B. Sanders & Brent Smith, 2003. "Estimation of NOI Growth, Volatility and Clustering by MSA," Working Paper 8613, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate.

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