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Testing a Present Value Model of Agricultural Land Values

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  • Lloyd, Tim

Abstract

This paper develops a present value model of agricultural land values and applies it to data from England and Wales. Augmenting a simple present value model to allow for inflation hedging yields a unique cointegrating vector that is consistent with the predictions of present value theory and suggests that land prices are highly responsive to changes in inflation in the long run. The dynamics of the corresponding error correction model are investigated and the long-run real rate of discount on land is estimated at 3.6 percent. Copyright 1994 by Blackwell Publishing Ltd

Suggested Citation

  • Lloyd, Tim, 1994. "Testing a Present Value Model of Agricultural Land Values," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 56(2), pages 209-223, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:obuest:v:56:y:1994:i:2:p:209-23
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    Cited by:

    1. Richard Heaney, 1998. "A Test of the cost‐of‐carry relationship using the London Metal Exchange lead contract," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(2), pages 177-200, April.
    2. Patton, Myles & Kostov, Philip & McErlean, Seamus & Moss, Joan, 2008. "Assessing the influence of direct payments on the rental value of agricultural land," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 397-405, October.
    3. Telles, Tiago Santos & Reydon, Bastiaan Philip & Maia, Alexandre Gori, 2018. "Effects of no-tillage on agricultural land values in Brazil," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 124-129.
    4. Benavidez, Justin & Hardin, Erin M., 2017. "Forecasting Cash Rent Values," 2017 Annual Meeting, February 4-7, 2017, Mobile, Alabama 252771, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    5. Salois, Matthew J. & Moss, Charles B., 2011. "A direct test of hyperbolic discounting using market asset data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 112(3), pages 290-292, September.
    6. Merry, Frank & Amacher, Gregory & Lima, Eirivelthon, 2008. "Land Values in Frontier Settlements of the Brazilian Amazon," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 2390-2401, November.

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