Real Exchange Rate Dynamics Under The Current Float: A Re-Examination
Augmented Dickey-Fuller regressions on pooled (but not individual) real exchange rates for the post-1973 period consistently reject the unit root null, even after accounting for cross-sectional dependence. The inference that the series is stationary, however, is not necessarily correct, because these tests strongly over-reject the null in certain circumstances, particularly when the series has a stochastic unit root. We find that bilateral real exchange rates against the US dollar have a stochastic unit root. Out-of-sample prediction exercises for an autoregressive model confirm these findings. Copyright 2003 Blackwell Publishing Ltd and The Victoria University of Manchester.
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Volume (Year): 71 (2003)
Issue (Month): 2 (03)
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