IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/manchs/v71y2003i2p156-171.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Real Exchange Rate Dynamics Under The Current Float: A Re-Examination

Author

Listed:
  • Michael Bleaney

    (University of Nottingham)

  • Stephen J. Leybourne

    (University of Nottingham)

Abstract

Augmented Dickey-Fuller regressions on pooled (but not individual) real exchange rates for the post-1973 period consistently reject the unit root null, even after accounting for cross-sectional dependence. The inference that the series is stationary, however, is not necessarily correct, because these tests strongly over-reject the null in certain circumstances, particularly when the series has a stochastic unit root. We find that bilateral real exchange rates against the US dollar have a stochastic unit root. Out-of-sample prediction exercises for an autoregressive model confirm these findings. Copyright 2003 Blackwell Publishing Ltd and The Victoria University of Manchester.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Bleaney & Stephen J. Leybourne, 2003. "Real Exchange Rate Dynamics Under The Current Float: A Re-Examination," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 71(2), pages 156-171, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:manchs:v:71:y:2003:i:2:p:156-171
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/servlet/useragent?func=synergy&synergyAction=showTOC&journalCode=manc&volume=71&issue=2&year=2003&part=null
    File Function: link to full text
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kahn, Shulamit & Lang, Kevin, 1991. "The Effect of Hours Constraints on Labor Supply Estimates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 73(4), pages 605-611, November.
    2. Blundell, Richard & Macurdy, Thomas, 1999. "Labor supply: A review of alternative approaches," Handbook of Labor Economics,in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 27, pages 1559-1695 Elsevier.
    3. Peter Kooreman & Arie Kapteyn, 1990. "On the Empirical Implementation of Some Game Theoretic Models of Household Labor Supply," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 25(4), pages 584-598.
    4. Clark, Andrew E. & Oswald, Andrew J., 1996. "Satisfaction and comparison income," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, pages 359-381.
    5. Dickens, William T & Lundberg, Shelly J, 1993. "Hours Restrictions and Labor Supply," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 34(1), pages 169-192, February.
    6. Shulamit B. Kahn & Kevin Lang, 1995. "The Causes of Hours Constraints: Evidence from Canada," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 28(4a), pages 914-928, November.
    7. Arthur van Soest & Isolde Woittiez & Arie Kapteyn, 1990. "Labor Supply, Income Taxes, and Hours Restrictions in the Netherlands," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 25(3), pages 517-558.
    8. Lazear, Edward P, 1981. "Agency, Earnings Profiles, Productivity, and Hours Restrictions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(4), pages 606-620, September.
    9. Deardorff, Alan V & Stafford, Frank P, 1976. "Compensation of Cooperating Factors," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 44(4), pages 671-684, July.
    10. Keith A. Bender & Peter J. Sloane, 1998. "Job Satisfaction, Trade Unions, and Exit-Voice Revisited," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 51(2), pages 222-240, January.
    11. Rosen, Sherwin, 1969. "On the Interindustry Wage and Hours Structure," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 77(2), pages 249-273, March/Apr.
    12. Ball, Laurence, 1990. "Intertemporal Substitution and Constraints on Labor Supply: Evidence from Panel Data," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 28(4), pages 706-724, October.
    13. Joseph G. Altonji & Christina H. Paxson, 1992. "Labor Supply, Hours Constraints, and Job Mobility," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 27(2), pages 256-278.
    14. Martijn P. Tummers & Isolde Woittiez, 1991. "A Simultaneous Wage and Labor Supply Model with Hours Restrictions," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 26(3), pages 393-423.
    15. Oswald, Andrew J, 1997. "Happiness and Economic Performance," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(445), pages 1815-1831, November.
    16. Booth, Alison L. & Francesconi, Marco & Frank, Jeff, 2000. "Temporary jobs: who gets them, what are they worth, and do they lead anywhere?," ISER Working Paper Series 2000-13, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    17. Van Soest, A., 1992. "Discrete Choice Models of Family Labour Supply," Papers 9214, Tilburg - Center for Economic Research.
    18. Stewart, Mark B & Swaffield, Joanna K, 1997. "Constraints on the Desired Hours of Work of British Men," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(441), pages 520-535, March.
    19. Andrew E. Clark, 1996. "Job Satisfaction in Britain," British Journal of Industrial Relations, London School of Economics, vol. 34(2), pages 189-217, June.
    20. Rob Euwals & Bertrand Melenberg & Arthur van Soest, 1998. "Testing the predictive value of subjective labour supply data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(5), pages 567-585.
    21. Heckman, James, 2013. "Sample selection bias as a specification error," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", pages 129-137.
    22. Wolf, Elke, 1998. "Do hours restrictions matter? A discrete family labor supply model with endogenous wages and hours restrictions," ZEW Discussion Papers 98-44, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
    23. Gary Chamberlain, 1980. "Analysis of Covariance with Qualitative Data," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 47(1), pages 225-238.
    24. Yoram Barzel, 1973. "The Determination of Daily Hours and Wages," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 87(2), pages 220-238.
    25. Drolet, Marie & Morissette, Rene, 1997. "Working More? Working Less? What Do Canadian Workers Prefer?," Analytical Studies Branch Research Paper Series 1997104e, Statistics Canada, Analytical Studies Branch.
    26. Altonji, Joseph G & Paxson, Christina H, 1988. "Labor Supply Preferences, Hours Constraints, and Hours-Wage Trade-Offs," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 6(2), pages 254-276, April.
    27. Biddle, Jeff E, 1988. "Intertemporal Substitution and Hours Restrictions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 70(2), pages 347-351, May.
    28. Ilmakunnas, Seija & Pudney, Stephen, 1990. "A model of female labour supply in the presence of hours restrictions," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 183-210, March.
    29. Boozer, Michael A., 1997. "Econometric Analysis of Panel Data Badi H. Baltagi Wiley, 1995," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(05), pages 747-754, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Cerrato, Mario & Kim, Hyunsok & MacDonald, Ronald, 2013. "Equilibrium exchange rate determination and multiple structural changes," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 52-66.
    2. Daisuke Nagakura, 2009. "Inconsistency of a Unit Root Test against Stochastic Unit Root Processes," IMES Discussion Paper Series 09-E-23, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    3. Nagakura, Daisuke, 2009. "Asymptotic theory for explosive random coefficient autoregressive models and inconsistency of a unit root test against a stochastic unit root process," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 79(24), pages 2476-2483, December.
    4. Ziesemer, Thomas, 2005. "How to cure the trade balance? Reducing budget deficits versus devaluations in the presence of J- and W-curves for Brazil," Research Memorandum 018, Maastricht University, Maastricht Economic Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    5. Ivan Paya & David Peel, 2005. "The process followed by PPP data. On the properties of linearity tests," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(21), pages 2515-2522.
    6. Yoon, Gawon, 2004. "On the existence of expected utility with CRRA under STUR," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 219-224, May.
    7. Daisuke Nagakura, 2007. "Testing for Coefficient Stability of AR(1) Model When the Null is an Integrated or a Stationary Process," IMES Discussion Paper Series 07-E-20, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:manchs:v:71:y:2003:i:2:p:156-171. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing) or (Christopher F. Baum). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/semanuk.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.