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Infinitely Divisible Distributions in Integer-Valued Garch Models

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  • E. Gonçalves
  • N. Mendes-Lopes
  • F. Silva

Abstract

type="main" xml:id="jtsa12112-abs-0001"> We propose an integer-valued stochastic process with conditional marginal distribution belonging to the class of infinitely divisible discrete probability laws. With this proposal, we introduce a wide class of models for count time series that includes the Poisson integer-valued generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (INGARCH) model (Ferland et al., 2006) and the negative binomial and generalized Poisson INGARCH models (Zhu, 2011, 2012a). The main probabilistic analysis of this process is developed stating, in particular, first-order and second-order stationarity conditions. The existence of a strictly stationary and ergodic solution is established in a subclass including the Poisson and generalized Poisson INGARCH models.

Suggested Citation

  • E. Gonçalves & N. Mendes-Lopes & F. Silva, 2015. "Infinitely Divisible Distributions in Integer-Valued Garch Models," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(4), pages 503-527, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jtsera:v:36:y:2015:i:4:p:503-527
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    9. Drost, F.C. & van den Akker, R. & Werker, B.J.M., 2008. "Note on integer-valued bilinear time series models," Other publications TiSEM aaf4f3fe-f141-4784-89b5-0, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
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    3. Yang Lu, 2021. "The predictive distributions of thinning‐based count processes," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 48(1), pages 42-67, March.
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    5. Aknouche, Abdelhakim & Francq, Christian, 2021. "Count And Duration Time Series With Equal Conditional Stochastic And Mean Orders," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 37(2), pages 248-280, April.
    6. Abdelhakim Aknouche & Christian Francq, 2022. "Stationarity and ergodicity of Markov switching positive conditional mean models," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(3), pages 436-459, May.
    7. Qi Li & Fukang Zhu, 2020. "Mean targeting estimator for the integer-valued GARCH(1, 1) model," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 61(2), pages 659-679, April.
    8. Luiza S. C. Piancastelli & Wagner Barreto‐Souza & Hernando Ombao, 2023. "Flexible bivariate INGARCH process with a broad range of contemporaneous correlation," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(2), pages 206-222, March.
    9. Yan Cui & Fukang Zhu, 2018. "A new bivariate integer-valued GARCH model allowing for negative cross-correlation," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 27(2), pages 428-452, June.

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