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New Evidence on the January Effect before Personal Income Taxes

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  • Jones, Steven L
  • Lee, Winson
  • Apenbrink, Rudolf

Abstract

The authors examine the returns of stocks in the Cowles Industrial Index before and after the introduction of personal income taxes in 1917. This is distinct from earlier studies because they cross-sectionally analyze the relationship between the returns of the individual stocks and measures of tax-loss selling potential and size. The authors find that excess returns at the turn-of-the-year and for the month of January were not significant until after 1917. These results provide strong support for the tax-loss selling hypothesis as an explanation for the January seasonal in the returns of small firms. Copyright 1991 by American Finance Association.

Suggested Citation

  • Jones, Steven L & Lee, Winson & Apenbrink, Rudolf, 1991. " New Evidence on the January Effect before Personal Income Taxes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1909-1924, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:46:y:1991:i:5:p:1909-24
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    Cited by:

    1. Easterday, Kathryn E. & Sen, Pradyot K., 2016. "Is the January effect rational? Insights from the accounting valuation model," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 168-185.
    2. Chen, Tsung-Cheng & Chien, Chin-Chen, 2011. "Size effect in January and cultural influences in an emerging stock market: The perspective of behavioral finance," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 208-229, April.
    3. Steven L. Jones & Winson Lee, 1995. "Evidence On The Behavior Of Bid And Ask Prices At The Turn Of The Year: Implications For The Survival Of Stock Return Seasonality," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 18(4), pages 383-400, December.
    4. Moritz Wagner & John Byong-Tek Lee & Dimitris Margaritis, 2018. "Mutual Fund Flows and Seasonalities in Stock Returns," Working Papers in Economics 18/17, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
    5. Sun, Qian & Tong, Wilson H.S., 2010. "Risk and the January effect," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 965-974, May.
    6. Griffiths, Mark D. & Turnbull, D. Alasdair S. & White, Robert W., 1999. "Re-examining the small-cap myth: problems in portfolio formation and liquidation," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 201-221.

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