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Picking Winners? A Survey of the Mean Reversion and Overreaction of Stock Prices Literature

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  • Forbes, William P

Abstract

This paper surveys, and suggests a possible synthesis of, two growing literatures concerning stock market anomalies. The first concentrates on identifying contrarian trading rules, capable of generating profits, when securities are segregated on the basis of past earnings, or share price performance. The other simply examines the time-series properties of security prices to find evidence of low-frequency negative autocorrelation, or 'mean-reversion.' We seek to articulate the points of interdependence between the two strands of research and the problems of joint hypothesis testing implied by the close relation between 'overreaction' and 'mean-reversion' tests. Copyright 1996 by Blackwell Publishers Ltd

Suggested Citation

  • Forbes, William P, 1996. " Picking Winners? A Survey of the Mean Reversion and Overreaction of Stock Prices Literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(2), pages 123-158, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:jecsur:v:10:y:1996:i:2:p:123-58
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    Cited by:

    1. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis Gil‐Alana, 2014. "Long‐Run and Cyclical Dynamics in the US Stock Market," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(2), pages 147-161, March.
    2. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2002. "Fractional integration and mean reversion in stock prices," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 599-609.
    3. Morris, Michael W. & Sheldon, Oliver J. & Ames, Daniel R. & Young, Maia J, 2007. "Metaphors and the market: Consequences and preconditions of agent and object metaphors in stock market commentary," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 174-192, March.

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