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The Effects Of Economic Integration On Trade

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  • David G. Mayes

Abstract

This article provides a critical analysis of the models and methods which have been used to estimate the effects of economic integration on trade and suggests the most fruitful lines of further development. Both the problem of the examination of the effects of past events and problems in the prediction of future changes are tackled. In particular the drawbacks of the method of estimation of the effects of previous integration as a residual from models which explain what would have happened had the integration not taken place are shown. It is concluded that the most fruitful avenue of approach lies in the estimation of models which provide an economic explanation of trade flows and their changes, and can hence be used for both the explanation of the effects of previous integration and the prediction of future events. Copyright 1978 BPL.

Suggested Citation

  • David G. Mayes, 1978. "The Effects Of Economic Integration On Trade," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(1), pages 1-25, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:jcmkts:v:17:y:1978:i:1:p:1-25
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    File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1468-5965.1978.tb00802.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Resnick, Stephen A & Truman, Edwin M, 1974. "The Distribution of West European Trade under Alternative Tariff Policies," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 56(1), pages 83-91, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Fernando Sanz, 2000. "A kalman filter-gravity equation approach to assess the trade impact of economic integration: The case of Spain, 1986–1992," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 136(1), pages 84-110, March.
    2. Urmas Varblane & Kristina Toming & Rena Selliov, 2002. "The Impact Of Eu-Accession On The Estonian Trade With Food Products – Partial Equilibrium Approach," University of Tartu - Faculty of Economics and Business Administration Working Paper Series 11, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, University of Tartu (Estonia).
    3. Ehrlich, Laura, 2002. "The EU Single Market and Customs Policy: Impact on Estonian Foreign Trade," Discussion Papers 797, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    4. Paul De Boer & Carlos. Martinez, 1999. "Spanish Imports of Manufactures and the European Union: An Empirical Assessment of the Entry," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 141-149, June.
    5. Nigel Grimwade & David G. Mayes & Jiao Wang, 2011. "Estimating the Effects of Integration," Chapters,in: International Handbook on the Economics of Integration, Volume III, chapter 13 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    6. Štefan Bojnec & Imre Fertő, 2015. "Agri-Food Export Competitiveness in European Union Countries," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(3), pages 476-492, May.
    7. Dean A. DeRosa & John P. Gilbert, 2005. "Predicting Trade Expansion under FTAs and Multilateral Agreements," Working Paper Series WP05-13, Peterson Institute for International Economics.

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