Why Banks Have A Future: Toward A New Theory Of Commercial Banking

According to some observers, the commercial bank–an institution that conducts the twin activities of accepting deposits payable on demand and originating loans–has outlived its usefulness and is in a state of terminal decline. The broad statistical evidence for this contention, however, is somewhat mixed. While some studies suggest that the role of banks in the United States is declining, others suggest that banks are simply using new vehicles to offer their services and that their role has not diminished at all. This article takes a different approach to analyzing the future of banks by examining the economic rationale for their past existence and exploring the extent to which this rationale can be expected to hold up in the future. The author begins by explaining why the two core banking activities–taking in deposits payable on demand and originating non‐marketable loans–are performed by the same institutions. The explanation turns on the recognition that both activities essentially require the institution to come up with cash on short notice–that is, to provide liquidity. Scale economies in providing liquidity explain why both activities are provided by the same entity. Deregulation and innovation have increased competition in the financial services industry, which has forced banks to concentrate on the essentials of liquidity provision. This is why the outward nature of banks' activities has changed (for example, banks today often sell instead of holding loans, and provide back‐up lines for commercial paper instead of originating loans), though not their underlying economic rationale (particularly the credit evaluation and monitoring involved in “relationship” banking). Beneath the surface reality of dramatic changes in financial products and services, the fundamental banking business of liquidity provision is alive and well. Moreover, in the course of performing their traditional activities, banks have acquired competencies that enable them to perform a variety of other financial and nonfinancial activities that deregulation and innovation have opened up to them. As part of their evaluation of these nontraditional activities, bankers must ensure that their organizational structures, controls, and compensation policies are appropriate for the new environment of deregulation and technological change.