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Sacrifice Ratios and Inflation Targeting: The Role of Credibility

Author

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  • Nicolás De Roux
  • Marc Hofstetter

Abstract

type="main" xml:lang="en"> Proponents of inflation targeting (IT) claim that it increases the credibility of central banks, which in turn should result in smaller sacrifice ratios (SRs) – that is, the ratio of output losses to the change in trend inflation during disinflations. We show that IT does indeed reduce SRs, but only if the disinflation is long: in a four-year-long disinflation, our estimates suggest that IT reduces SRs by at least 60%. In fast disinflations, IT does not affect SRs. These results suggest that IT and fast disinflations are substitute alternatives in enhancing the credibility of disinflationary processes and reducing their costs.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicolás De Roux & Marc Hofstetter, 2014. "Sacrifice Ratios and Inflation Targeting: The Role of Credibility," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(3), pages 381-401, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:intfin:v:17:y:2014:i:3:p:381-401
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    Cited by:

    1. Urrutia, Miguel & Hofstetter, Marc & Hamann, Franz, 2014. "Inflation Targeting in Colombia, 2002-2012," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 6394, Inter-American Development Bank.
    2. Goran Petrevski, 2023. "Macroeconomic Effects of Inflation Targeting: A Survey of the Empirical Literature," Papers 2305.17474, arXiv.org.
    3. Dinabandhu Sethi & Debashis Acharya, 2019. "Credibility of inflation targeting: some recent Asian evidence," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 52(3), pages 203-219, August.
    4. Wolassa Lawisso Kumo, 2015. "Working Paper - 216 - Inflation Targeting Monetary Policy, Inflation Volatility and Economic Growth in South Africa," Working Paper Series 2154, African Development Bank.
    5. André Lunardelli & Marcio Issao Nakane, 2019. "The New Keynesian Model and Sacrifice Ratios: Some Measurement Issues," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2019_18, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    6. Chris Loewald & Konstantin Makrelov & Ekaterina Pirozhkova, 2022. "TheshorttermcostsofreducingtrendinflationinSouthAfrica," Working Papers 11029, South African Reserve Bank.
    7. Martin Stojanovikj & Goran Petrevski, 2024. "Inflation targeting and disinflation costs in Emerging Market economies," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 51(1), pages 283-312, February.
    8. Marcus Giamattei, 2022. "Can Cold Turkey Reduce Inflation Inertia? Evidence on Disinflation and Level‐k Thinking from a Laboratory Experiment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(8), pages 2477-2517, December.
    9. Magkonis, Georgios & Zekente, Kalliopi-Maria, 2020. "Inflation-output trade-off: Old measures, new determinants?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    10. Mishra, Akanksha & Dubey, Amlendu, 2025. "The impact of restrictive monetary policy in emerging countries," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 915-927.
    11. Dinabandhu Sethi & Debashis Acharya, 2018. "Estimating Sectoral Disinflation Cost in India: Some Structural VAR Evidence," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 16(1), pages 23-46, December.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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