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Understanding the future of lithium: Part 1, resource model

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  • Hanjiro Ambrose
  • Alissa Kendall

Abstract

Lithium is a critical energy material in part due to an array of emerging technologies from electric vehicles to renewable energy systems that rely on large‐format lithium ion batteries. Recent growth in demand for lithium is primarily from increased use in batteries, which comprised 46% of total lithium by end use in 2017. These technologies are often deployed to improve environmental sustainability, yet the environmental effects and sustainability of the resources they rely on are often not well understood, especially as demand increases over time. This is the first in a two part article series that together quantify the lithium resource use and its environmental effects over time by coupling a resource production model and life cycle assessment model. In this first part, a novel resource production model is developed to create scenarios of future lithium demand and production characteristics (e.g., timing, location, and ore type). These scenarios are then used to create a life cycle assessment in part two that captures temporal and spatial changes in production systems over time. Results of the resource production model show global lithium resources range from 293 to 527 million metric tons (Mt) of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE). Global production will likely increase from 237,000 metric tons LCE in 2018 to 4.4–7.5 Mt LCE/year by 2100. Even with rapidly increasing demand, production from high‐grade brines may satisfy most lithium demand through 2035. Though resources can meet demand through 2100, development of lower grade and unfavorable deposits is likely required after 2050.

Suggested Citation

  • Hanjiro Ambrose & Alissa Kendall, 2020. "Understanding the future of lithium: Part 1, resource model," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 24(1), pages 80-89, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:inecol:v:24:y:2020:i:1:p:80-89
    DOI: 10.1111/jiec.12949
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    Cited by:

    1. Iván Sanz-Gorrachategui & Pablo Pastor-Flores & Antonio Bono-Nuez & Cora Ferrer-Sánchez & Alejandro Guillén-Asensio & Carlos Bernal-Ruiz, 2021. "Lithium-Ion Battery Parameter Identification via Extremum Seeking Considering Aging and Degradation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-12, November.
    2. Wafaa Baabou & Anders Bjørn & Cécile Bulle, 2022. "Absolute Environmental Sustainability of Materials Dissipation: Application for Construction Sector," Resources, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-22, August.
    3. Sanna Wickerts & Rickard Arvidsson & Anders Nordelöf & Magdalena Svanström & Patrik Johansson, 2024. "Prospective life cycle assessment of sodium‐ion batteries made from abundant elements," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 28(1), pages 116-129, February.
    4. Dmitry V. Pelegov & Jean-Jacques Chanaron, 2022. "Electric Car Market Analysis Using Open Data: Sales, Volatility Assessment, and Forecasting," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(1), pages 1-15, December.
    5. Zhou, Na & Su, Hui & Wu, Qiaosheng & Hu, Shougeng & Xu, Deyi & Yang, Danhui & Cheng, Jinhua, 2022. "China's lithium supply chain: Security dynamics and policy countermeasures," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    6. Mohammad Ali Rajaeifar & Marco Raugei & Bernhard Steubing & Anthony Hartwell & Paul A. Anderson & Oliver Heidrich, 2021. "Life cycle assessment of lithium‐ion battery recycling using pyrometallurgical technologies," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 25(6), pages 1560-1571, December.
    7. William T. Stringfellow & Patrick F. Dobson, 2021. "Technology for the Recovery of Lithium from Geothermal Brines," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-72, October.
    8. Han, Sun & Zhenghao, Meng & Meilin, Li & Xiaohui, Yang & Xiaoxue, Wang, 2023. "Global supply sustainability assessment of critical metals for clean energy technology," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    9. Guzmán, Juan Ignacio & Karpunina, Alina & Araya, Constanza & Faúndez, Patricio & Bocchetto, Marcela & Camacho, Rodolfo & Desormeaux, Daniela & Galaz, Juanita & Garcés, Ingrid & Kracht, Willy & Lagos, , 2023. "Chile: On the road to global sustainable mining," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).

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