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The impact of Chinese monetary policy shocks on East and South-East Asia

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  • Tomasz Koluk
  • Aaron Mehrotra

Abstract

We study the effects of Chinese monetary policy shocks on China's major trading partners in East and South-East Asia by estimating structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) models for six economies in the region. We find that a monetary expansion in Mainland China leads to an increase in real GDP (temporary) and the price level (permanent) in a number of economies in our sample, most notably in Hong Kong and the Philippines. The impact could result from intertemporal substitution present in a general equilibrium framework, which allows for positive domestic impacts of foreign monetary expansions. Our results emphasize the growing importance of China for its neighbouring economies and the significance of Chinese shocks for the design of monetary policy in Asian economies. Copyright (c) 2009 The Authors. Journal compilation (c) 2009 The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development.

Suggested Citation

  • Tomasz Koluk & Aaron Mehrotra, 2009. "The impact of Chinese monetary policy shocks on East and South-East Asia," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 17(1), pages 121-145, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:etrans:v:17:y:2009:i:1:p:121-145
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mehrotra, Aaron N., 2007. "Exchange and interest rate channels during a deflationary era--Evidence from Japan, Hong Kong and China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 188-210, March.
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    5. Mackowiak, Bartosz, 2006. "What does the Bank of Japan do to East Asia?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 253-270, September.
    6. Svensson, Lars E O & van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 1989. "Excess Capacity, Monopolistic Competition, and International Transmission of Monetary Disturbances," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(397), pages 785-805, September.
    7. Cushman, David O. & Zha, Tao, 1997. "Identifying monetary policy in a small open economy under flexible exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 433-448, August.
    8. Dickinson, David & Liu, Jia, 2007. "The real effects of monetary policy in China: An empirical analysis," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 87-111.
    9. Sims, Christopher A. & Zha, Tao, 2006. "Does Monetary Policy Generate Recessions?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(02), pages 231-272, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Vespignani, Joaquin L. & Ratti, Ronald A., 2013. "International monetary transmission to the Euro area: Evidence from the U.S., Japan and China," MPRA Paper 49153, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Kang, Wensheng & Ratti, Ronald A. & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2016. "Chinese liquidity increases and the U.S. economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 764-771.
    3. Konstantins Benkovskis & Andrejs Bessonovs & Martin Feldkircher & Julia Wörz, 2011. "The Transmission of Euro Area Monetary Shocks to the Czech Republic, Poland and Hungary: Evidence from a FAVAR Model," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 3, pages 8-36.
    4. Richard C.K. Burdekin & Yijing Shen & Hsin- hui I.H. Whited, 2013. "Cross- Strait linkages: historica perspective and empirical evidence," Chapters,in: Economic Integration Across the Taiwan Strait, chapter 1, pages 1-29 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    5. repec:onb:oenbwp:y:2011:i:2:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Jannsen, Nils & Klein, Melanie, 2011. "The international transmission of euro area monetary policy shocks," Kiel Working Papers 1718, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    7. A D Adom, 2016. "Resilience of developing countries to shocks: Case study of WAEMU countries with SUR and VAR Approaches," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 21(2), pages 105-138, September.
    8. repec:onb:oenbwp:y:2011:i:3:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Vespignani, Joaquin L. & Ratti, Ronald A., 2016. "Not all international monetary shocks are alike for the Japanese economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 822-837.
    10. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Markus Eller & Aaron Mehrotra, 2011. "The Economic Transmission of Fiscal Policy Shocks from Western to Eastern Europe," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 44-68.
    11. Anders C. Johansson, 2012. "China’s Growing Influence in Southeast Asia – Monetary Policy and Equity Markets," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(7), pages 816-837, July.
    12. Vespignani, Joaquin L. & Ratti, Ronald A., 2013. "Chinese Monetary Expansion and the US Economy," Working Papers 16874, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics, revised 05 Aug 2013.
    13. Keddad, Benjamin, 2019. "How do the Renminbi and other East Asian currencies co-move?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 49-70.
    14. Aaron Mehrotra & José R Sánchez-Fung, 2010. "China's Monetary Policy and the Exchange Rate," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 52(4), pages 497-514, December.
    15. Yoshiyuki Fukuda & Yuki Kimura & Nao Sudo & Hiroshi Ugai, 2013. "Cross-country Transmission Effect of the U.S. Monetary Shock under Global Integration," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 13-E-16, Bank of Japan.
    16. Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2015. "International transmission of monetary shocks to the Euro area: Evidence from the U.S., Japan and China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 131-141.
    17. Kang, Wensheng & Ratti, Ronald A. & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2014. "Liquidity expansion in China and the U.S. economy," MPRA Paper 59338, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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