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The Allocation of Talent over the Business Cycle and its Long-term Effect on Sectoral Productivity

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  • Michael J. Böhm
  • Martin Watzinger

Abstract

type="main" xml:id="ecca12143-abs-0001"> It is well documented that graduates enter different occupations in recessions than in booms. In our paper, we examine the impact of the resulting change in the allocation of talent for long-term productivity and output in a sector. In a setting where output can be quantitatively and qualitatively measured, we find evidence that talent flows to stable sectors in recessions and to cyclical sectors in booms: economists starting or graduating from their PhD in a recession are significantly more productive in academia over the long term than economists starting or graduating in a boom.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael J. Böhm & Martin Watzinger, 2015. "The Allocation of Talent over the Business Cycle and its Long-term Effect on Sectoral Productivity," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 82(328), pages 892-911, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:econom:v:82:y:2015:i:328:p:892-911
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/ecca.2015.82.issue-328
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    Cited by:

    1. Russell Weinstein, 2022. "Local Labor Markets and Human Capital Investments," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 57(5), pages 1498-1525.
    2. Alena Bičáková & Guido Matias Cortes & Jacopo Mazza, 2021. "Caught in the Cycle: Economic Conditions at Enrolment and Labour Market Outcomes of College Graduates," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 131(638), pages 2383-2412.
    3. Catalina Amuedo-Dorantes & Delia Furtado, 2019. "Settling for Academia?: H-1B Visas and the Career Choices of International Students in the United States," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 54(2), pages 401-429.
    4. Markus Nagler & Marc Piopiunik & Martin R. West, 2020. "Weak Markets, Strong Teachers: Recession at Career Start and Teacher Effectiveness," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 38(2), pages 453-500.
    5. John P. Conley & Ali Sina Önder & Benno Torgler, 2016. "Are all economics graduate cohorts created equal? Gender, job openings, and research productivity," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 108(2), pages 937-958, August.
    6. Saltiel, Fernando & Tuttle, Cody, 2022. "Business Cycles and Police Hires," IZA Discussion Papers 15665, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    7. Fernando Saltiel & Cody Tuttle, 2023. "Business Cycles and Police Hires," Working Papers 288, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).

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