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Bayesian Inference on Protective Antibody Levels Using Case‐Control Data

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  • Vincent J. Carey
  • Carol J. Baker
  • Richard Platt

Abstract

Summary. In the study of immune responses to infectious pathogens, the minimum protective antibody concentration (MPAC) is a quantity of great interest. We use case‐control data to estimate the posterior distribution of the conditional risk of disease given a lower bound on antibody concentration in an at‐risk subject. The concentration bound beyond which there is high credibility that infection risk is zero or nearly so is a candidate for the MPAC. A very simple Gibbs sampling procedure that permits inference on the risk of disease given antibody level is presented. In problems involving small numbers of patients, the procedure is shown to have favorable accuracy and robustness to choice/misspecification of priors. Frequentist evaluation indicates good coverage probabilities of credibility intervals for antibody‐dependent risk, and rules for estimation of the MPAC are illustrated with epidemiological data.

Suggested Citation

  • Vincent J. Carey & Carol J. Baker & Richard Platt, 2001. "Bayesian Inference on Protective Antibody Levels Using Case‐Control Data," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 57(1), pages 135-142, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:biomet:v:57:y:2001:i:1:p:135-142
    DOI: 10.1111/j.0006-341X.2001.00135.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kari Auranen & Martin Eichner & Helena Käyhty & Aino K. Takala & Elja Arjas, 1999. "A Hierarchical Bayesian Model to Predict the Duration of Immunity to Haemophilus Influenzas Type B," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 55(4), pages 1306-1313, December.
    2. Kooperberg, Charles & Stone, Charles J., 1991. "A study of logspline density estimation," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 327-347, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dean Follmann, 2006. "Augmented Designs to Assess Immune Response in Vaccine Trials," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 62(4), pages 1161-1169, December.

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