IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/agecon/v50y2019i5p615-628.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Effect of changes in population density and crop productivity on farm households in Malawi

Author

Listed:
  • Adam M. Komarek
  • Siwa Msangi

Abstract

This study examines the ex‐ante farm‐household effects of changes in family size, yield potential, and yield gaps using a farm‐household simulation model that reflects the economic and biophysical conditions of central Malawi. Disparities between growth in human population and crop yields present challenges for farm‐household crop production and income in sub‐Saharan Africa. We focus on the effect of growth in yield potential and a more efficient use of livestock manure as approaches to improving crop production and incomes in the face of looming population pressures. Our results suggest that, even without considering climate change, expected changes in population density and crop prices in 2050 mean that per person crop production and income may fall by 21% compared to 2013 values if yield potential and yield gaps remain constant. However, per person crop production and income could increase in 2050 by 8% compared to 2013 values if (1) growth rates of yield potential rise for maize by 1.13% each year and for legumes rise by at least 0.4% each year, and (2) farmers use livestock manure more efficiently. Our foresight approach to considering crop production at the farm‐household scale supplements macro‐scale analyses of the production dimension of food security.

Suggested Citation

  • Adam M. Komarek & Siwa Msangi, 2019. "Effect of changes in population density and crop productivity on farm households in Malawi," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 50(5), pages 615-628, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:agecon:v:50:y:2019:i:5:p:615-628
    DOI: 10.1111/agec.12513
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/agec.12513
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/agec.12513?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chibwana, Christopher & Fisher, Monica & Shively, Gerald, 2012. "Cropland Allocation Effects of Agricultural Input Subsidies in Malawi," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 124-133.
    2. Thomas Reardon & Kostas Stamoulis & Prabhu Pingali, 2007. "Rural nonfarm employment in developing countries in an era of globalization," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 37(s1), pages 173-183, December.
    3. Castellanos-Navarrete, A. & Tittonell, P. & Rufino, M.C. & Giller, K.E., 2015. "Feeding, crop residue and manure management for integrated soil fertility management – A case study from Kenya," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 24-35.
    4. Komarek, Adam M. & Drogue, Sophie & Chenoune, Roza & Hawkins, James & Msangi, Siwa & Belhouchette, Hatem & Flichman, Guillermo, 2017. "Agricultural household effects of fertilizer price changes for smallholder farmers in central Malawi," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 168-178.
    5. Andrew D. Foster & Mark R. Rosenzweig, 2010. "Microeconomics of Technology Adoption," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 2(1), pages 395-424, September.
    6. Ragasa, Catherine & Mazunda, John, 2018. "The impact of agricultural extension services in the context of a heavily subsidized input system: The case of Malawi," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 25-47.
    7. T.S. Jayne, 2014. "Land dynamics and future trajectories of structural transformation in Africa," Agrekon, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(3), pages 1-30, September.
    8. Guillermo Flichman & Hatem Belhouchette & Adam M. Komarek & Sophie Drogue & James Hawkins & Roza Chenoune & Siwa Msangi, 2016. "Dynamic agricultural household bio-economic simulator (DAHBSIM) model description: biosight project technical report," Working Papers hal-01432629, HAL.
    9. Muuz Hadush & Stein T. Holden & Mesfin Tilahun, 2019. "Does population pressure induce farm intensification? Empirical evidence from Tigrai Region, Ethiopia," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 50(3), pages 259-277, May.
    10. Palacios-Lopez, Amparo & Christiaensen, Luc & Kilic, Talip, 2017. "How much of the labor in African agriculture is provided by women?," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 52-63.
    11. Jayne, T.S. & Chamberlin, Jordan & Headey, Derek D., 2014. "Land pressures, the evolution of farming systems, and development strategies in Africa: A synthesis," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 1-17.
    12. Pepijn Schreinemachers & Chakrit Potchanasin & Thomas Berger & Sithidech Roygrong, 2010. "Agent‐based modeling for ex ante assessment of tree crop innovations: litchis in northern Thailand," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 41(6), pages 519-536, November.
    13. Folberth, Christian & Yang, Hong & Gaiser, Thomas & Abbaspour, Karim C. & Schulin, Rainer, 2013. "Modeling maize yield responses to improvement in nutrient, water and cultivar inputs in sub-Saharan Africa," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 22-34.
    14. Ricker-Gilbert, Jacob & Jumbe, Charles & Chamberlin, Jordan, 2014. "How does population density influence agricultural intensification and productivity? Evidence from Malawi," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 114-128.
    15. Ecker, Olivier & Qaim, Matin, 2011. "Analyzing Nutritional Impacts of Policies: An Empirical Study for Malawi," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 412-428, March.
    16. Arega D. Alene, 2010. "Productivity growth and the effects of R&D in African agriculture," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 41(3‐4), pages 223-238, May.
    17. Jacob Ricker-Gilbert & Thomas Jayne & Gerald Shively, 2013. "Addressing the 'Wicked Problem' of Input Subsidy Programs in Africa," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 35(2), pages 322-340.
    18. Stein Holden & Rodney Lunduka, 2012. "Do fertilizer subsidies crowd out organic manures? The case of Malawi," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 43(3), pages 303-314, May.
    19. Christine M. Moser & Christopher B. Barrett, 2006. "The complex dynamics of smallholder technology adoption: the case of SRI in Madagascar," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 35(3), pages 373-388, November.
    20. Rodney Lunduka & Jacob Ricker-Gilbert & Monica Fisher, 2013. "What are the farm-level impacts of Malawi's farm input subsidy program? A critical review," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 44(6), pages 563-579, November.
    21. Diao, Xinshen & Thurlow, James & Benin, Samuel & Fan, Shenggen, 2012. "Strategies and priorities for African agriculture: Economywide perspectives from country studies," IFPRI books, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), number Xinshen Diao.
    22. Jacob Ricker-Gilbert & Thomas Jayne & Gerald Shively, 2013. "Editor's choice Addressing the "Wicked Problem" of Input Subsidy Programs in Africa," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 35(2), pages 322-340.
    23. Johannes Sauer & Hardwick Tchale, 2009. "The Economics of Soil Fertility Management in Malawi," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 31(3), pages 535-560.
    24. Graeub, Benjamin E. & Chappell, M. Jahi & Wittman, Hannah & Ledermann, Samuel & Kerr, Rachel Bezner & Gemmill-Herren, Barbara, 2016. "The State of Family Farms in the World," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 1-15.
    25. repec:fpr:ifprib:xinshendiao is not listed on IDEAS
    26. Johannes Woelcke, 2006. "Technological and policy options for sustainable agricultural intensification in eastern Uganda," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 34(2), pages 129-139, March.
    27. Johannes Sauer & Hardwick Tchale, 2009. "The Economics of Soil Fertility Management in Malawi," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 31(3), pages 535-560, September.
    28. Collier, Paul & Dercon, Stefan, 2014. "African Agriculture in 50Years: Smallholders in a Rapidly Changing World?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 92-101.
    29. Hugo Valin & Ronald D. Sands & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe & Gerald C. Nelson & Helal Ahammad & Elodie Blanc & Benjamin Bodirsky & Shinichiro Fujimori & Tomoko Hasegawa & Petr Havlik & Edwina Heyhoe, 2014. "The future of food demand: understanding differences in global economic models," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 45(1), pages 51-67, January.
    30. Jakob B. Madsen & Md. Rabiul Islam, 2016. "Exploring the widening food gap: an international perspective," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 47(6), pages 645-659, November.
    31. Adam M. Komarek & Fredoun Z. Ahmadi‐Esfahani, 2011. "Impacts of price and productivity changes on banana‐growing households in Uganda," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 42, pages 141-151, November.
    32. T.S. Jayne & Shahidur Rashid, 2013. "Input subsidy programs in sub-Saharan Africa: a synthesis of recent evidence," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 44(6), pages 547-562, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. El Ansari, Loubna & Chenoune, Roza & Yigezu, Yigezu A. & Komarek, Adam M. & Gary, Christian & Belhouchette, Hatem, 2023. "Intensification options in cereal-legume production systems generate trade-offs between sustainability pillars for farm households in northern Morocco," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    2. Kruseman, Gideon & Dermawan, Ahmad & Diagne, Mandiaye & Enahoro, Dolapo & Frija, Aymen & Gatto, Marcel & Gbegbelegbe, Sika & Komarek, Adam M. & Mausch, Kai & Mottaleb, Khondoker, 2021. "Foresight for income and employment: What can we learn for agricultural research for development," SocArXiv 783rw, Center for Open Science.
    3. Kitenge, Erick, 2022. "Determinants of entries into and exits from the US farming sector," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 379-385.
    4. Hongyun Zheng & Wanglin Ma & Gucheng Li, 2021. "Adoption of organic soil amendments and its impact on farm performance: evidence from wheat farmers in China," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 65(2), pages 367-390, April.
    5. S. C. West & A. W. Mugera & R. S. Kingwell, 2022. "The choice of efficiency benchmarking metric in evaluating firm productivity and viability," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 57(2), pages 193-211, April.
    6. Hirpa Tufa, Adane & Alene, Arega D. & Cole, Steven M. & Manda, Julius & Feleke, Shiferaw & Abdoulaye, Tahirou & Chikoye, David & Manyong, Victor, 2022. "Gender differences in technology adoption and agricultural productivity: Evidence from Malawi," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Komarek, Adam M. & Drogue, Sophie & Chenoune, Roza & Hawkins, James & Msangi, Siwa & Belhouchette, Hatem & Flichman, Guillermo, 2017. "Agricultural household effects of fertilizer price changes for smallholder farmers in central Malawi," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 168-178.
    2. Jayne, Thomas S. & Mason, Nicole M. & Burke, William J. & Ariga, Joshua, 2018. "Review: Taking stock of Africa’s second-generation agricultural input subsidy programs," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 1-14.
    3. Koppmair, Stefan & Kassie, Menale & Qaim, Matin, 2017. "The influence of farm input subsidies on the adoption of natural resource management technologies," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 61(4), October.
    4. Saenz, Mariana & Thompson, Eric, 2017. "Gender and Policy Roles in Farm Household Diversification in Zambia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 152-169.
    5. Jayne, T.S. & Mason, Nicole M. & Burke, William J. & Ariga, Joshua, 2016. "Agricultural Input Subsidy Programs in Africa: An Assessment of Recent Evidence," Food Security International Development Working Papers 245892, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.
    6. Koppmair, Stefan & Kassie, Menale & Qaim, Matin, 2016. "Farm input subsidies and the adoption of natural resource management technologies," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235313, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    7. Jayne, T.S. & Sitko, Nicholas J. & Mason, Nicole M., 2017. "Can Input Subsidy Programs Contribute To Climate Smart Agriculture?," Feed the Future Innovation Lab for Food Security Policy Research Papers 270626, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics, Feed the Future Innovation Lab for Food Security (FSP).
    8. Sylvester Amoako Agyemang & Tomáš Ratinger & Miroslava Bavorová, 2022. "The Impact of Agricultural Input Subsidy on Productivity: The Case of Ghana," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 34(3), pages 1460-1485, June.
    9. Fujimoto, Takefumi & Suzuki, Aya, 2021. "Do Fertilizer and Seed Subsidies Strengthen Farmers' Market Participation? the Impact of Tanzania NAIVS on Farmers' Purchase of Agricultural Inputs and Their Maize-Selling Activities," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 315044, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    10. Asfaw, Solomon & Cattaneo, Andrea & Pallante, Giacomo & Palma, Alessandro, 2017. "Improving the efficiency targeting of Malawi's farm input subsidy programme: Big pain, small gain?," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 104-118.
    11. Maggio, Giuseppe & Veljanoska, Stefanija, 2021. "Would you rather stay? Agricultural Subsidies and Household Migration in Malawi," 2021 Annual Meeting, August 1-3, Austin, Texas 314041, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    12. Skjeflo , Sofie Waage & Holden , Stein, 2014. "Economy-wide effects of input subsidies in Malawi: Market imperfections and household heterogeneity," CLTS Working Papers 7/14, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, Centre for Land Tenure Studies, revised 10 Oct 2019.
    13. Harou, Aurélie P., 2018. "Unraveling the effect of targeted input subsidies on dietary diversity in household consumption and child nutrition: The case of Malawi," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 124-135.
    14. Nicole M. Mason & Thomas S. Jayne & Nicolas van de Walle, 2017. "The Political Economy of Fertilizer Subsidy Programs in Africa: Evidence from Zambia," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 99(3), pages 705-731.
    15. Avila-Santamaria, Jorge J. & Useche, Maria P., 2016. "Urea Subsidies and the Decision to Allocate Land to a New Fertilizing Technology: Ex-ante Analysis in Ecuador," 2016 Annual Meeting, February 6-9, 2016, San Antonio, Texas 229851, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    16. Raymond Boadi Frempong, 2023. "Do subsidies on seed and fertilizer lead to child labour? Evidence from Malawi," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 41(2), March.
    17. Wossen, Tesfamicheal & Abdoulaye, Tahirou & Alene, Arega & Feleke, Shiferaw & Ricker-Gilbert, Jacob & Manyong, Victor & Awotide, Bola Amoke, 2017. "Productivity and Welfare Effects of Nigeria's e-Voucher-Based Input Subsidy Program," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 251-265.
    18. Fisher, Monica & Kandiwa, Vongai, 2014. "Can agricultural input subsidies reduce the gender gap in modern maize adoption? Evidence from Malawi," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 101-111.
    19. Ragasa, Catherine & Mazunda, John, 2018. "The impact of agricultural extension services in the context of a heavily subsidized input system: The case of Malawi," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 25-47.
    20. Gashaw Tadesse Abate & Tanguy Bernard & Alan de Brauw & Nicholas Minot, 2018. "The impact of the use of new technologies on farmers’ wheat yield in Ethiopia: evidence from a randomized control trial," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 49(4), pages 409-421, July.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:agecon:v:50:y:2019:i:5:p:615-628. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iaaeeea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.