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Los efectos del precio del suelo sobre el precio de la vivienda para Colombia

Author

Listed:
  • Natalia Salazar

    ()

  • Roberto Steiner

    ()

  • Alejandro Becerra

    ()

  • Jaime Ramírez

    ()

Abstract

El presente documento analiza el comportamiento reciente de los precios de la vivienda en Colombia y busca dar luces sobre si hay un desalineamiento de estos frente a los fundamentales que los determinan. Para ello se utilizaron dos aproximaciones. La primera utiliza un modelo VAR estructural para hacer pronósticos dentro de muestra. Los resultados sugieren que los precios actualmente observados no están desalineados si dentro de los determinantes fundamentales de los mismos se incluye el precio del suelo. Para la segunda aproximación se construyó un modelo estructural de oferta y demanda de vivienda. Los resultados de este modelo son coherentes con los del modelo VAR y sugieren que cualquier desalineamiento del precio de la vivienda respecto de sus fundamentales se asocia con niveles históricamente altos del precio del suelo.

Suggested Citation

  • Natalia Salazar & Roberto Steiner & Alejandro Becerra & Jaime Ramírez, 2013. "Los efectos del precio del suelo sobre el precio de la vivienda para Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 31(70), pages 18-66, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdr:ensayo:v:31:y:2013:i:70:p:18-66
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. María Angélica Arbeláez & Roberto Steiner & Alejandro Becerra & Daniel Wills, 2011. "Housing tenure and housing demand in Colombia," WORKING PAPERS SERIES. DOCUMENTOS DE TRABAJO 009067, FEDESARROLLO.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gómez-González, José E. & Ojeda-Joya, Jair N. & Rey-Guerra, Catalina & Sicard, Natalia, 2013. "Testing for bubbles in housing markets: new results using a new method," Globalization Institute Working Papers 164, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    2. John J. García & Daniel Mateo Cossio & Ricardo Mesa Urhan, 2017. "Efectos de mecanismos institucionales en el precio de la vivienda nueva en Medelli?n," Documentos de Trabajo CIEF 015658, Universidad EAFIT.
    3. repec:bla:sajeco:v:85:y:2017:i:1:p:52-67 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. José E. Gómez-González & Jair N. Ojeda-Joya & Catalina Rey-Guerra & Natalia Sicard, 2015. "Testing for Bubbles in the Colombian Housing Market: A New Approach," Revista Desarrollo y Sociedad, Universidad de los Andes - CEDE, August.
    5. Gustavo Adolfo HERNANDEZ DIAZ & Gabriel PIRAQUIVE GALEANO, 2014. "Evolución de los precios de la vivienda en Colombia," Archivos de Economía 011208, Departamento Nacional de Planeación.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    burbujas en vivienda; precio del suelo; restricción de suelo.;

    JEL classification:

    • O18 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis; Housing; Infrastructure
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • R34 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Input Demand Analysis
    • R52 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Regional Government Analysis - - - Land Use and Other Regulations

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