An Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between Net Migration and Macroeconomic Condition of Nigeria

Nigeria is an important migration destination within the West African sub-region. However, over the past two (2) decades, the country has consistently recorded a negative net migration rate, implying a higher number of emigration than immigration. Drawing from the neoclassical and modern theories of migration, which highlight economic condition as a major factor in the decision to migrate, this paper seeks to empirically assess the relationship between the net migration pattern in Nigeria and the macroeconomic condition of the country over the past three (3) decades (from 1991 to 2020). Using the OLS regression analysis, the findings show a regression value (R2) of 0.847, which implies that the variables of macroeconomic condition (economic growth, real GDP per capita, unemployment rate, inflation rate, and current account balance) account for 85% of the variation in the net migration rate of the country. Among these variables, real GDP per capita and the unemployment rate were found to have a significant impact on net migration. However, the negative relationship between real GDP per capita and net migration rate shows that an increase in the prosperity of residents in Nigeria reduces the net migration rate.This suggests the existence and the need to deal with unequal distribution of income in the country, which limits the trickledown effect of an improved economy. Also, the positive relationship between the unemployment rate and net migration suggests the existence of other factors other than economic factors (as suggested by the modern theory of migration), which play a critical role in the decision to immigrate to or emigrate from Nigeria.