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The Relationship between Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty: Empirical Evidence from Turkey

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  • Abdul Qahar KHATIR
  • Burcu GÜVENEKAuthor-Name: Fatih MANGIR

Abstract

Makalemizde (2005: 01-2020: 05) Türkiye ekonomisinin enflasyon ve enflasyon belirsizliği arasındaki ilişkiyi ARMA-GARCH modelini kullanarak araştırdık. Bu konuda yapılmış birçok teorik ve metodolojik çalışma bulunmaktadır. Bazı ampirik çalışmalar enflasyonun enflasyon dalgalanması üzerindeki olumlu etkisine ilişkin Friedman-Ball hipotezini desteklese de, bazıları Cukierman & Meltzer'in enflasyon belirsizliğinin daha yüksek enflasyona katkıda bulunduğuna ilişkin hipotezini desteklemektedir ve son olarak bulgularının geri kalanı, belirsizliği gösteren Hollanda hipotezini doğrulamaktadır. potansiyel enflasyonu düşürmek için tetikler. Çalışmamızda enflasyon, Friedman-Ball hipotezini destekleyen dört-beş gecikme seçimi koşulunun hepsinde belirsizlikte artışa neden olur. Enflasyon belirsizliği, Cukierman & Meltzer hipotezini ve Holland hipotezini desteklemeyen enflasyonda bir artışa neden olmuyor. Bu nedenle Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası'nın enflasyon belirsizliğini dengelemek için enflasyon hedef politikasını başarıyla uygulayarak yanıt vermesi gerektiği sonucuna varılmıştır.

Suggested Citation

  • Abdul Qahar KHATIR & Burcu GÜVENEKAuthor-Name: Fatih MANGIR, 2021. "The Relationship between Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty: Empirical Evidence from Turkey," Journal of Academic Value Studies, Journal of Academic Value Studies, vol. 6(4), pages 331-340, Month: Fe.
    • Handle: RePEc:atj:journl:v:6:y:2021:i:4:p:331-340
    DOI: 10.13934/1999.393
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Anahtar Kelimeler: Türkiye; Enflasyon; Belirsizlik; ARCH; GARCH.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R00 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General - - - General
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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