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Rekomendacje inwestycyjne a realia gospodarcze - nadmierny optymizmu wśród analityków giełdowych

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  • Jakub Keller
  • Radosław Pastusiak

Abstract

Autorzy twierdzą, że wiele raportów analitycznych publikowanych przez domy maklerskie, oceniających kursy akcji spółek notowanych na Giełdzie Papierów Wartościowych w Warszawie, daje zbyt optymistyczne oceny przewidywanych zmian ich notowań, nie w pełni uzasadnione analizą zmiennych fundamentalnych odzwierciedlających rzeczywistą sytuację tych przedsiębiorstw i ich pozycję rynkową oraz ogólną sytuację gospodarczą. Niezależnie od subiektywizmu tych ocen i ogólnej tendencji do nadmiernego optymizmu, występuje także efekt zakotwiczenia polegający na tym, że wielu analityków giełdowych stara się dostosować swoje oceny do ocen zawartych w już opublikowanych raportach innych renomowanych domów maklerskich. Takie zachowania, wpływające na oceny i prognozy kursów sporządzane przez analityków giełdowych, a zwłaszcza ich nadmierny optymizm, ograniczają wartość informacyjną podawanych przez nich rekomendacji inwestycyjnych. Powyższe wnioski zostały poparte wynikami analizy raportów giełdowych opublikowanych w okresie od 2009 r. do 2012 r., a dotyczących kursów akcji 20 największych spółek notowanych na GPW. (abstrakt oryginalny)

Suggested Citation

  • Jakub Keller & Radosław Pastusiak, 2015. "Rekomendacje inwestycyjne a realia gospodarcze - nadmierny optymizmu wśród analityków giełdowych," Ekonomista, Polskie Towarzystwo Ekonomiczne, issue 6, pages 910-920.
    • Handle: RePEc:aoq:ekonom:y:2015:i:6:p:910-920
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    References listed on IDEAS

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