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Análise da Taxa de Câmbio a Partir do Índice de Pressão Cambial: A Experiência Brasileira de 1994 a 1999

Author

Listed:
  • Fernando Antˆonio Ribeiro Soares

    (Ministério da Fazenda)

  • Maurício Barata de Paula Pinto

    (Universidade de Brasília)

  • Tito Belchior Silva Moreira

    (Universidade Católica de Brasília)

Abstract

Este artigo analisa a evolução da taxa de câmbio brasileira a partir da adoção da âncora cambial no Plano Real. Para tanto, construiu-se um índice de pressão cambial com base na metodologia de Eichengreen et alii (1995, 1996) que detecta não só mudanças nas variações da taxa de câmbio, mas também ataques especulativos nos quais as autoridades monetárias foram bem sucedidas em defender o Real. Foram elaboradas diversas versões do índice com diferentes variáveis constitutivas, periodicidade e pesos de ponderação. Os vários resultados obtidos capturaram os ataques especulativos sofridos pela moeda brasileira de 1995 a 1999, em especial os ataques derivados das crises mexicana, asiática, russa e, finalmente, da própria crise cambial brasileira. Além disso, a decomposição do índice de pressão cambial possibilitou detectar o quão foram utilizadas as reservas internacionais e a política monetária, via taxa de juros, para defender o regime de câmbio administrado.

Suggested Citation

  • Fernando Antˆonio Ribeiro Soares & Maurício Barata de Paula Pinto & Tito Belchior Silva Moreira, 2007. "Análise da Taxa de Câmbio a Partir do Índice de Pressão Cambial: A Experiência Brasileira de 1994 a 1999," Economia, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics], vol. 8(3), pages 545-572.
  • Handle: RePEc:anp:econom:v:8:y:2007:i:3:p:545-572
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew K & Wyplosz, Charles, 1996. "Contagious Currency Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 1453, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Ilan Goldfajn & Rodrigo O. Valdés, 1999. "The Aftermath of Appreciations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 114(1), pages 229-262.
    3. repec:wsi:wschap:9789814749589_0011 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Reinhart, Carmen & Goldstein, Morris & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2000. "Assessing financial vulnerability, an early warning system for emerging markets: Introduction," MPRA Paper 13629, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Morris Goldstein & Graciela Kaminsky & Carmen Reinhart, 2017. "Methodology and Empirical Results," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: TRADE CURRENCIES AND FINANCE, chapter 11, pages 397-436 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    6. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Índice de Pressão Cambial; Administração da Taxa de Câmbio; Âncora Cambial; Ataques Especulativos;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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