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Intersectoral Shadow Economic Linkages and their Impact on Tax Evasion

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  • Dmitry Yu. Fedotov
  • Ekaterina N. Nevzorova

Abstract

The article discusses shadow economic linkages between companies from different sectors. The research hypothesis is that the multiplier effect can cause a spillover of the shadow economy from one sector to another through business connections between companies. The research methodology comprises, first, a correlation analysis of the indicators reflecting the level of informal activities in the key industries of Russia in 2011–2017; second, analysis of input-output tables to reveal the patterns inherent to intersectoral financial flows that involve sectors with a large share of shadow activities; and, third, analysis of the tax ratio in the key sectors in the given period. The correlation analysis of Rosstat’s adjustment of gross value added for informal economic activities and the share of undocumented workers employed in the total number of workers in the sector has revealed a strong correlation between these indicators. It was found that such sectors as real estate, agriculture and forestry, construction, trade and hotel industry have shadow economies exceeding the average level in the country. We used the input-output balance data to reveal the close connections between the sectors with a large share of shadow activities and other sectors. Our calculations have brought to light an increase in the share of illicit transactions in some industries due to interactions with shadow sectors. This trend was particularly characteristic of such industries as transport and communications, education, health care and social services. It was also found that the tax ratio for transactions involving companies from sectors with a large share of shadow activities tended to decline due to tax evasion. These research results can be used by tax authorities to detect and monitor economic operations associated with high tax evasion risks.

Suggested Citation

  • Dmitry Yu. Fedotov & Ekaterina N. Nevzorova, 2020. "Intersectoral Shadow Economic Linkages and their Impact on Tax Evasion," Journal of Tax Reform, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Ural Federal University, vol. 6(1), pages 36-53.
  • Handle: RePEc:aiy:jnljtr:v:6:y:2020:i:1:p:36-53
    DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.15826/jtr.2020.6.1.074
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Leandro Medina & Mr. Friedrich Schneider, 2018. "Shadow Economies Around the World: What Did We Learn Over the Last 20 Years?," IMF Working Papers 2018/017, International Monetary Fund.
    2. repec:rnp:smmscn:s18417 is not listed on IDEAS
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    1. Hana Zídková & Spyros Papadakis & Markéta Arltová & Ioannis Lomis & Anna Christou, 2025. "How Important is the Structure of the EU Economy to the VAT Collection?," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2025(1), pages 1-25.
    2. Christou Anna & Eriotis Nikolaos & Lomis Ioannis & Papadakis Spyros & Thalassinos Eleftherios, 2021. "The Greek VAT Gap: The Influence of Individual Economic Sectors," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(4 - Part ), pages 851-882.
    3. Elham Taheri & Salih KatircioÄŸlu & Ayhan Tecel, 2024. "Gender Differences in the Impact of the Informal Economy on the Labor Market: Evidence From Middle Eastern Countries," Evaluation Review, , vol. 48(5), pages 865-892, October.
    4. repec:ers:journl:v:xxiv:y:2021:i:4b:p:851-882 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Yu.E. Labunets & I.A. Mayburov, 2020. "Relationship of Tax Burden and Firm Size in the Timber Industry in Russia," Journal of Applied Economic Research, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Ural Federal University, vol. 19(4), pages 458-487.

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