IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ags/pojard/356067.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Maize yield sensitivity to climate variability in South Africa: application of the ARDL-ECM approach

Author

Listed:
  • Shoko, Rangarirai Roy
  • Chaminuka, Petronella
  • Belete, Abenet

Abstract

Climate affects crop production decisions and outcomes in agriculture. From very short-term decisions about which crops to grow, when to plant or harvest a field, to longerterm decisions about farm investments, climate can positively or negatively affect agricultural systems. Although the general effects of climate change on agriculture are broadly understood, there are limited studies that model the relationship between specific crops and climate variables. The study uses the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to analyze the sensitivity of maize yield to climate variables, fertilizer use and other non-climate variables. This paper uses annual timeseries data of 47 observations spanning from 1970 to 2016. The results reveal that rainfall and temperature are important maize yield drivers in South Africa. However, if excessive, they will produce negative effects. The findings of this analysis are relevant for designing long-term interventions to mitigate the effects of climate change on maize production.

Suggested Citation

  • Shoko, Rangarirai Roy & Chaminuka, Petronella & Belete, Abenet, 2019. "Maize yield sensitivity to climate variability in South Africa: application of the ARDL-ECM approach," Journal of Agribusiness and Rural Development, University of Life Sciences, Poznan, Poland, vol. 54(4), April.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:pojard:356067
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.356067
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/356067/files/MAIZE.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.356067?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Breitenbach, Marthinus C. & Fenyes, Tamas I., 2000. "Maize and wheat production trends in South Africa in a deregulated environment," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 39(3), pages 1-21, September.
    2. Alemu, Zerihun Gudeta & Oosterhuizen, K. & van Schalkwyk, Herman D., 2003. "Grain-supply response in Ethiopia: An error-correction approach," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 42(4), pages 1-16, December.
    3. Amponsah, Lawrence & Kofi Hoggar, Glory & Yeboah Asuamah, Samuel, 2015. "Climate change and agriculture: modelling the impact of carbon dioxide emission on cereal yield in Ghana," MPRA Paper 68051, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Shoko, R.R. & Chaminuka, P. & Belete, A., 2016. "Estimating the Supply Response of Maize in South Africa: A Nerlovian Partial Adjustment Model Approach," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 55(3), September.
    2. Mesay Yami & Ferdi Meyer & Rashid Hassan, 2020. "The impact of production shocks on maize markets in Ethiopia: implications for regional trade and food security," Agricultural and Food Economics, Springer;Italian Society of Agricultural Economics (SIDEA), vol. 8(1), pages 1-25, December.
    3. Bachewe, Fantu Nisrane & Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum, 2018. "Supply response of smallholder households in Ethiopia," IFPRI book chapters, in: The economics of teff: Exploring Ethiopia’s biggest cash crop, chapter 8, pages 181-204, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    4. Shikur, Zewdie Habte, 2021. "Potato and Tomato Supply and Yield Responses to Policy in Ethiopia," African Journal of Economic Review, African Journal of Economic Review, vol. 9(4), September.
    5. Abera Gayesa Tirfi, 2023. "Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modeling Of Impact Of Climatic And Non-Climatic Factors Influencing Sorghum Production In Ethiopia," Malaysian Journal of Sustainable Agriculture (MJSA), Zibeline International Publishing, vol. 7(1), pages 52-57, March.
    6. Yoon, Jongyeol & Brown, Scott, 2017. "Examination of asymmetric supply response in the U.S. livestock industry," 2017 Annual Meeting, February 4-7, 2017, Mobile, Alabama 252779, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    7. Jan C. Greyling & Phillip G. Pardey & Senait Senay, 2025. "Agricultural policy and crop location: Long‐run output and spatial climate risk consequences," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 107(1), pages 181-207, January.
    8. Arib Fatima & Houria Et-Touile, 2022. "Econometric Study of the Impacts of Climate Change on Food Security in Morocco [Etude économétrique des impacts du changement climatique sur la sécurité alimentaire au Maroc]," Post-Print hal-03909166, HAL.
    9. Greyling, Jan C. & Pardey, Philip G., 2018. "Measuring Maize in South Africa: The Shifting Structure of Production During the Twentieth Century, 1904–2015," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 58(01), November.
    10. Ogundeji, A.A. & Jooste, A. & Oyewumi, O.A., 2011. "An error correction approach to modelling beef supply response in South Africa," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 50(2), September.
    11. Paunić, Alida, 2016. "Brazil, Preservation of Forest and Biodiversity," MPRA Paper 71462, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. ELOUHICHI Kamel & TEMURSHOEV Umed & COLEN Liesbeth & GOMEZ Y PALOMA Sergio, 2019. "Upscaling the productivity performance of the Agricultural Commercialization Cluster Initiative in Ethiopia," JRC Research Reports JRC117562, Joint Research Centre.
    13. repec:ags:ijag24:347271 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Bachewe, Fantu Nisrane & Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum, 2015. "Dynamic supply response of farm households in Ethiopia," ESSP working papers 78, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    15. Gyimah-Brempong, Kwabena & Johnson, Michael E. & Takeshima, Hiroyuki, 2013. "Assessing the potential and policy alternatives for achieving rice competitiveness and growth in Nigeria:," IFPRI discussion papers 1301, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    16. RICOME Aymeric & ELOUHICHI Kamel & GOMEZ Y PALOMA Sergio, 2020. "Impacts of agricultural produce cess (tax) reform options in Tanzania," JRC Research Reports JRC116791, Joint Research Centre.
    17. Lekunze, Joseph Nembo & Luvhengo, Usapfa & Shoko, Rangarirai Roy, 2016. "Structural Analysis Of Minimum Wage Rates, Unemployment And Food Prices Of Farm Workers In South Africa: Co-Integration Approach," Journal of Agribusiness and Rural Development, University of Life Sciences, Poznan, Poland, vol. 42(4).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Climate Change; Crop Production/Industries;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:pojard:356067. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.jard.edu.pl/en/main .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.