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A cliometric analysis of the Aldo Moro kidnapping and assassination

Author

Listed:
  • Bertrand Crettez

    (Economix, UFR SEGMI, University of Paris-Ouest Nanterre La Défense, Nanterre, France)

  • Régis Deloche

    (GEPECS, University of Paris-Descartes, Paris, France)

Abstract

In Rome, on 16 March 1978, the Red Brigades kidnapped Aldo Moro. They kept him a prisoner for 55 days, and ultimately killed him. Why did they decide to kill Moro since it appears a posteriori that they did not improve their situation by doing so? Our paper answers this question by building mainly on the model of kidnapping by Selten (A simple game model of kidnapping. In: Henn R, Moeschlin O (eds) Mathematical economics and game theory. Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, vol. 141. Springer, Berlin, pp 139–156, 1977). We develop an integrated game-theoretic model that reliably captures both the problem of kidnapping for some sort of non-monetary ransom and the problem of assassination of prominent political figures. We embed our model within the historical evidence surrounding the Moro case. We show that, in the Moro case, there is a continuum of equilibria implying the death of the hostage.

Suggested Citation

  • Bertrand Crettez & Régis Deloche, 2009. "A cliometric analysis of the Aldo Moro kidnapping and assassination," Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 3(2), pages 123-139, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:afc:cliome:v:3:y:2009:i:2:p:123-139
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Krzysztof Krakowski & Juan S. Morales & Dani Sandu, 2020. "Violence Against Politicians, Negative Campaigning, and Public Opinion: Evidence from Poland," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 624 JEL Classification: D, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
    2. Detotto Claudio & Vannini Marco & McCannon Bryan C., 2014. "Understanding Ransom Kidnappings and Their Duration," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 14(3), pages 1-23, July.
    3. Alexander Fink & Mark Pingle, 2014. "Kidnap insurance and its impact on kidnapping outcomes," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 160(3), pages 481-499, September.
    4. Bertrand Crettez & Régis Deloche, 2018. "An analytic narrative of Caesar’s death: Suicide or not? That is the question," Rationality and Society, , vol. 30(3), pages 332-349, August.
    5. M. Vannini & B. Mccannon & C. Detotto, 2012. "Understanding Ransom Kidnapping and Its Duration," Working Paper CRENoS 201219, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
    6. Krzysztof Krakowski & Juan S. Morales & Dani Sandu, 2020. "Violence Against Politicians, Negative Campaigning, and Public Opinion: Evidence from Poland," CHILD Working Papers Series 624 JEL Classification: D, Centre for Household, Income, Labour and Demographic Economics (CHILD) - CCA.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Kidnapping; Game theory; Terrorism;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C72 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Noncooperative Games
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War
    • K41 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Litigation Process

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