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Randomly Modulated Periodic Signals in Australias National Electricity Market

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  • John Foster
  • Melvin J. Hinich
  • Phillip Wild

Abstract

In this article, we use half hourly spot electricity prices and load data for the National Electricity Market (NEM) of Australia for the period from December 1998 to August 2007 to test for randomly modulated periodicity. In doing so, we apply signal coherence spectral analysis to the time series of half hourly spot prices and megawatt-hours (MWh) load demand from 7/12/1998 to 31/08/2007 using the FORTRAN 95 program developed by Hinich (2000). We detect relatively steady weekly and daily cycles in load demand but relatively more unstable cycles in prices.

Suggested Citation

  • John Foster & Melvin J. Hinich & Phillip Wild, 2008. "Randomly Modulated Periodic Signals in Australias National Electricity Market," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 105-130.
  • Handle: RePEc:aen:journl:2008v29-03-a06
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    Cited by:

    1. Wild, Phillip & Hinich, Melvin J. & Foster, John, 2010. "Are daily and weekly load and spot price dynamics in Australia's National Electricity Market governed by episodic nonlinearity?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 1082-1091, September.
    2. Phillip Wild & Melvin J. Hinich & John Foster, 2008. "The Use of Trimming to Improve the Performance of Tests for Nonlinear Serial Dependence with Application to the Australian National Electricity Market," Discussion Papers Series 367, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    3. Joseph Mullins & Liam Wagner & John Foster, 2010. "Price Spikes in Electricity Markets: A Strategic Perspective," Energy Economics and Management Group Working Papers 05, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    4. Paul Simshauser & Phillip Wild, 2009. "The Western Australian Power Dilemma ," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(4), pages 342-369, December.
    5. Paul Simshauser, 2008. "The Dynamic Efficiency Gains from Introducing Capacity Payments in the National Electricity Market," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 41(4), pages 349-370, December.
    6. Rabindra Nepal and John Foster, 2016. "Testing for Market Integration in the Australian National Electricity Market," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4).
    7. Taylor, James W., 2010. "Exponentially weighted methods for forecasting intraday time series with multiple seasonal cycles," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 627-646, October.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F0 - International Economics - - General

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