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Machine Learning about Treatment Effect Heterogeneity: The Case of Household Energy Use

Author

Listed:
  • Christopher R. Knittel
  • Samuel Stolper

Abstract

We use causal forests to evaluate the heterogeneous treatment effects (TEs) of repeated behavioral nudges toward household energy conservation. The average response to treatment is a monthly electricity reduction of 9 kilowatt-hours (kWh), but the full distribution of responses ranges from -40 to +10 kWh. Households learn to reduce more over time, conditional on having responded in year one. Pre-treatment consumption and home value are the most commonly used predictors in the forest. The results suggest the ability to use machine learning techniques for improved targeting and tailoring of treatment.

Suggested Citation

  • Christopher R. Knittel & Samuel Stolper, 2021. "Machine Learning about Treatment Effect Heterogeneity: The Case of Household Energy Use," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 111, pages 440-444, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:apandp:v:111:y:2021:p:440-44
    DOI: 10.1257/pandp.20211090
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    File URL: https://doi.org/10.3886/E140181V1
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Olga Takács & János Vincze, 2023. "Where is the pain the most acute? The market segments particularly affected by gender wage discrimination in Hungary," CERS-IE WORKING PAPERS 2304, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.
    2. Axenbeck, Janna & Berner, Anne & Kneib, Thomas, 2022. "What drives the relationship between digitalization and industrial energy demand? Exploring firm-level heterogeneity," ZEW Discussion Papers 22-059, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    3. Takanori Ida & Takunori Ishihara & Koichiro Ito & Daido Kido & Toru Kitagawa & Shosei Sakaguchi & Shusaku Sasaki, 2022. "Choosing Who Chooses: Selection-Driven Targeting in Energy Rebate Programs," NBER Working Papers 30469, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Kayo Murakami & Hideki Shimada & Yoshiaki Ushifusa & Takanori Ida, 2022. "Heterogeneous Treatment Effects Of Nudge And Rebate: Causal Machine Learning In A Field Experiment On Electricity Conservation," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 63(4), pages 1779-1803, November.
    5. Achim Ahrens & Alessandra Stampi-Bombelli & Selina Kurer & Dominik Hangartner, 2023. "Optimal multi-action treatment allocation: A two-phase field experiment to boost immigrant naturalization," Papers 2305.00545, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2024.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • C45 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Neural Networks and Related Topics

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