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Invisible Geniuses: Could the Knowledge Frontier Advance Faster?

Author

Listed:
  • Ruchir Agarwal
  • Patrick Gaule

Abstract

A better understanding of the determinants of idea/knowledge production remains critical for long-run growth. Toward this end, this paper establishes two results using data from the International Mathematical Olympiad (IMO). First, individuals who excelled in teenage years are especially capable of advancing the knowledge frontier. Second, such talented individuals born in poorer countries are systematically less likely to engage in knowledge production. IMO participants from low-income countries produce 34 percent fewer publications and 56 percent fewer citations than equally talented rich-country counterparts. Policies to encourage talented youth to pursue scientific careers—especially those from poorer countries—could advance the knowledge frontier faster.

Suggested Citation

  • Ruchir Agarwal & Patrick Gaule, 2020. "Invisible Geniuses: Could the Knowledge Frontier Advance Faster?," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 2(4), pages 409-424, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aerins:v:2:y:2020:i:4:p:409-24
    DOI: 10.1257/aeri.20190457
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Baselgia, Enea & Foellmi, Reto, 2022. "Inequality and Growth: A Review on a Great Open Debate in Economics," CEPR Discussion Papers 17483, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Agarwal, Ruchir & Ganguli, Ina & Gaule, Patrick & Smith, Geoff, 2021. "Why U.S. Immigration Barriers Matter for the Global Advancement of Science," IZA Discussion Papers 14016, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Abramitzky, Ran & Greska, Lena & Pérez, Santiago & Price, Joseph & Schwarz, Carlo & Waldinger, Fabian, 2024. "Climbing the Ivory Tower: How Socio-Economic Background Shapes Academia," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 739, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    4. Fry, Caroline V. & Lynham, John & Tran, Shannon, 2023. "Ranking researchers: Evidence from Indonesia," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(5).
    5. Alexeev, Michael & Natkhov, Timur & Polishchuk, Leonid, 2024. "Institutions, abilities, and the allocation of talent: Evidence from Russian regions," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 271-296.
    6. Ruchir Agarwal & Patrick Gaule & Yuyan Jiang, 2025. "Finding Young Einsteins: Olympiads and STEM Talent Discovery," GTF Working Papers 2501, Global Talent Fund.
    7. Corsini, Alberto & Pezzoni, Michele & Visentin, Fabiana, 2022. "What makes a productive Ph.D. student?," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(10).
    8. Elias Einio & Josh Feng & Xavier Jaravel, 2022. "Social push and the direction of innovation," CEP Discussion Papers dp1861, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    9. Fabio Bertolotti & Kyle R. Myers & Wei Yang Tham, 2025. "Productivity Beliefs and Efficiency in Science," NBER Working Papers 34000, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Agarwal, Ruchir & Ganguli, Ina & Gaulé, Patrick & Smith, Geoff, 2023. "Why U.S. immigration matters for the global advancement of science," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(1).
    11. Tolga Yuret, 2024. "Career paths of the International Mathematics Olympiad (IMO) medalists," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 129(6), pages 3469-3491, June.
    12. Kyle R. Myers & Lauren Lanahan & Evan E. Johnson, 2025. "Small Business Innovation Applied to National Needs," NBER Chapters, in: Entrepreneurship and Innovation Policy and the Economy, volume 5, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • O30 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - General
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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