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Optimal Regulation of E-cigarettes: Theory and Evidence

Author

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  • Hunt Allcott
  • Charlie Rafkin

Abstract

We model optimal e-cigarette regulation and estimate key parameters. Using tax changes and scanner data, we estimate relatively elastic demand. A demographic shift-share identification strategy suggests limited substitution between e-cigarettes and cigarettes. We field a new survey of public health experts who report that vaping is more harmful than previously believed. In our model's average Monte Carlo simulation, these results imply optimal e-cigarette taxes are higher than recent norms. However, e-cigarette subsidies may be optimal if vaping is a stronger substitute for smoking and is safer than our experts report, or if consumers overestimate the health harms from vaping.

Suggested Citation

  • Hunt Allcott & Charlie Rafkin, 2022. "Optimal Regulation of E-cigarettes: Theory and Evidence," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 14(4), pages 1-50, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejpol:v:14:y:2022:i:4:p:1-50
    DOI: 10.1257/pol.20200805
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Lawrence Jin & Don Kenkel & Michael Lovenheim & Alan Mathios & Hua Wang, 2024. "Misinformation, consumer risk perceptions, and markets: The impact of an information shock on vaping and smoking cessation," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 62(4), pages 1652-1678, October.
    2. Chad D. Cotti & Charles J. Courtemanche & Yang Liang & Johanna Catherine Maclean & Erik T. Nesson & Joseph J. Sabia, 2024. "The Effect of E-Cigarette Flavor Bans on Tobacco Use," NBER Working Papers 32535, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Michael E. Darden, 2024. "Optimal e-cigarette policy when preferences and internalities are correlated," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 68(2), pages 107-131, April.
    4. Cawley, John & Dragone, Davide, 2024. "Harm reduction for addictive consumption: When does it improve health and when does it backfire?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    5. Frank A. Sloan, 2024. "Subjective beliefs, health, and health behaviors," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 69(2), pages 105-144, October.
    6. Salvatore Barbaro & Nathalie Neu-Yanders, 2022. "Tobacco control and optimal taxation in a changing European market landscape," Working Papers 2204, Gutenberg School of Management and Economics, Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz.
    7. Michael F. Pesko, 2023. "Effects of e-cigarette minimum legal sales ages on youth tobacco use in the United States," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 66(3), pages 261-277, June.
    8. Henry Saffer & Selen Ozdogan & Michael Grossman & Daniel L. Dench & Dhaval M. Dave, 2024. "Comprehensive E-cigarette Flavor Bans and Tobacco Use among Youth, Young Adults, and Adults," NBER Working Papers 32534, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • D18 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Protection
    • D61 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Allocative Efficiency; Cost-Benefit Analysis
    • H21 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Efficiency; Optimal Taxation
    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

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