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Statistical Basis for Predicting Technological Progress

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Cited by:

  1. Coccia, Mario, 2019. "The theory of technological parasitism for the measurement of the evolution of technology and technological forecasting," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 289-304.
  2. Lafond, François & Greenwald, Diana & Farmer, J. Doyne, 2022. "Can Stimulating Demand Drive Costs Down? World War II as a Natural Experiment," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 82(3), pages 727-764, September.
  3. Hetong Wang & Kuishuang Feng & Peng Wang & Yuyao Yang & Laixiang Sun & Fan Yang & Wei-Qiang Chen & Yiyi Zhang & Jiashuo Li, 2023. "China’s electric vehicle and climate ambitions jeopardized by surging critical material prices," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-13, December.
  4. Moglianesi, Andrea & Keppo, Ilkka & Lerede, Daniele & Savoldi, Laura, 2023. "Role of technology learning in the decarbonization of the iron and steel sector: An energy system approach using a global-scale optimization model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 274(C).
  5. Philip Metzger, 2023. "Economics of In-Space Industry and Competitiveness of Lunar-Derived Rocket Propellant," Papers 2303.09011, arXiv.org.
  6. Santhakumar, Srinivasan & Meerman, Hans & Faaij, André, 2021. "Improving the analytical framework for quantifying technological progress in energy technologies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
  7. Rick Kotze & Alan C. Brent & Josephine Musango & Imke de Kock & Leonard A. Malczynski, 2021. "Investigating the Investments Required to Transition New Zealand’s Heavy-Duty Vehicles to Hydrogen," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-22, March.
  8. Mariam Barry & Giorgio Triulzi & Christopher L. Magee, 2017. "Food Productivity Trends from Hybrid Corn: Statistical Analysis of Patents and Field-test data," Papers 1706.05911, arXiv.org.
  9. Benjamin David, 2014. "On the information and communication technologies - productivity nexus: a long-lasting adjustment period," Working Papers hal-04141282, HAL.
  10. Casey, Gregory, "undated". "Energy Efficiency and Directed Technical Change: Implications for Climate Change Mitigation," 2017 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 1, Chicago, Illinois 259959, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  11. John C. Boik, 2016. "Optimality of Social Choice Systems: Complexity, Wisdom, and Wellbeing Centrality," Working Paper 0005, Principled Societies Project, revised Mar 2017.
  12. Santhakumar, Srinivasan & Smart, Gavin & Noonan, Miriam & Meerman, Hans & Faaij, André, 2022. "Technological progress observed for fixed-bottom offshore wind in the EU and UK," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
  13. Franklyn Kanyako & Erin Baker, 2021. "Uncertainty analysis of the future cost of wind energy on climate change mitigation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 166(1), pages 1-17, May.
  14. Karali, Nihan & Park, Won Young & McNeil, Michael, 2017. "Modeling technological change and its impact on energy savings in the U.S. iron and steel sector," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 202(C), pages 447-458.
  15. Reinhard Haas & Marlene Sayer & Amela Ajanovic & Hans Auer, 2023. "Technological learning: Lessons learned on energy technologies," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(2), March.
  16. Hann-Earl Kim & Yu-Sang Chang & Hee-Jin Kim, 2021. "Dynamic Electricity Intensity Trends in 91 Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-26, April.
  17. Farmer, J. Doyne & Lafond, François, 2016. "How predictable is technological progress?," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 647-665.
  18. Pfeiffer, Alexander & Millar, Richard & Hepburn, Cameron & Beinhocker, Eric, 2016. "The ‘2°C capital stock’ for electricity generation: Committed cumulative carbon emissions from the electricity generation sector and the transition to a green economy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 1395-1408.
  19. Lane, Blake & Kinnon, Michael Mac & Shaffer, Brendan & Samuelsen, Scott, 2022. "Deployment planning tool for environmentally sensitive heavy-duty vehicles and fueling infrastructure," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
  20. Alexander Kott, 2020. "Toward universal laws of technology evolution: modeling multi-century advances in mobile direct-fire systems," The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation, , vol. 17(4), pages 373-388, October.
  21. Mario Coccia, 2019. "Technological Parasitism," Papers 1901.09073, arXiv.org.
  22. Nykvist, Björn & Sprei, Frances & Nilsson, Måns, 2019. "Assessing the progress toward lower priced long range battery electric vehicles," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 144-155.
  23. Singh, Anuraag & Triulzi, Giorgio & Magee, Christopher L., 2021. "Technological improvement rate predictions for all technologies: Use of patent data and an extended domain description," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(9).
  24. Ashwin K Seshadri, 2018. "Economics of carbon-dioxide abatement under an exogenous constraint on cumulative emissions," Papers 1808.08717, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2020.
  25. Wei, Max & Smith, Sarah J. & Sohn, Michael D., 2017. "Experience curve development and cost reduction disaggregation for fuel cell markets in Japan and the US," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 191(C), pages 346-357.
  26. Thomassen, Gwenny & Van Passel, Steven & Dewulf, Jo, 2020. "A review on learning effects in prospective technology assessment," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
  27. Li, Yanan & Lin, Jun & Qian, Yanjun & Li, Dehong, 2023. "Feed-in tariff policy for biomass power generation: Incorporating the feedstock acquisition process," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 304(3), pages 1113-1132.
  28. Dosi, Giovanni & Grazzi, Marco & Mathew, Nanditha, 2017. "The cost-quantity relations and the diverse patterns of “learning by doing”: Evidence from India," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(10), pages 1873-1886.
  29. Özdemir, Özge & Hobbs, Benjamin F. & van Hout, Marit & Koutstaal, Paul R., 2020. "Capacity vs energy subsidies for promoting renewable investment: Benefits and costs for the EU power market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
  30. Gilmore, Nicholas & Koskinen, Ilpo & van Gennip, Domenique & Paget, Greta & Burr, Patrick A. & Obbard, Edward G. & Daiyan, Rahman & Sproul, Alistair & Kay, Merlinde & Lennon, Alison & Konstantinou, Ge, 2022. "Clean energy futures: An Australian based foresight study," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 260(C).
  31. Sgouris Sgouridis & Abdulla Kaya & Denes Csala, 2016. "Switching Economics for Physics and the Carbon Price Inflation: Problems in Integrated Assessment Models and their Implications," Papers 1603.06196, arXiv.org.
  32. Joshua S. Gans & Michael Kearney & Erin L. Scott & Scott Stern, 2021. "Choosing Technology: An Entrepreneurial Strategy Approach," Strategy Science, INFORMS, vol. 6(1), pages 39-53, March.
  33. Anuraag Singh & Giorgio Triulzi & Christopher L. Magee, 2020. "Technological improvement rate estimates for all technologies: Use of patent data and an extended domain description," Papers 2004.13919, arXiv.org.
  34. Baker, Erin & Bosetti, Valentina & Anadon, Laura Diaz & Henrion, Max & Aleluia Reis, Lara, 2015. "Future costs of key low-carbon energy technologies: Harmonization and aggregation of energy technology expert elicitation data," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 219-232.
  35. Triulzi, Giorgio & Alstott, Jeff & Magee, Christopher L., 2020. "Estimating technology performance improvement rates by mining patent data," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
  36. Cherie Courseault Trumbach & Dinah M. Payne, 2015. "Technology development and disasters: is there a silver lining to the dark cloud?," International Journal of Business Continuity and Risk Management, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 6(2), pages 121-136.
  37. Bergesen, Joseph D. & Suh, Sangwon, 2016. "A framework for technological learning in the supply chain: A case study on CdTe photovoltaics," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 721-728.
  38. Gi-Young Chae & Seung-Hyun An & Chul-Yong Lee, 2021. "Demand Forecasting for Liquified Natural Gas Bunkering by Country and Region Using Meta-Analysis and Artificial Intelligence," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(16), pages 1-18, August.
  39. Xaviery N. Penisa & Michael T. Castro & Jethro Daniel A. Pascasio & Eugene A. Esparcia & Oliver Schmidt & Joey D. Ocon, 2020. "Projecting the Price of Lithium-Ion NMC Battery Packs Using a Multifactor Learning Curve Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(20), pages 1-18, October.
  40. Way, Rupert & Lafond, François & Lillo, Fabrizio & Panchenko, Valentyn & Farmer, J. Doyne, 2019. "Wright meets Markowitz: How standard portfolio theory changes when assets are technologies following experience curves," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 211-238.
  41. Salvador Pueyo, 2014. "Ecological Econophysics for Degrowth," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 6(6), pages 1-53, May.
  42. Salvador Pueyo, 2019. "Limits to green growth and the dynamics of innovation," Papers 1904.09586, arXiv.org, revised May 2019.
  43. Reed, Jeffrey & Dailey, Emily & Shaffer, Brendan & Lane, Blake & Flores, Robert & Fong, Amber & Samuelsen, Scott, 2023. "Potential evolution of the renewable hydrogen sector using California as a reference market," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 331(C).
  44. Guanglu Zhang & Douglas Allaire & Venkatesh Shankar & Daniel A McAdams, 2019. "A case against the trickle-down effect in technology ecosystems," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(6), pages 1-7, June.
  45. Funk, Jeffrey L. & Magee, Christopher L., 2015. "Rapid improvements with no commercial production: How do the improvements occur?," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 777-788.
  46. Benjamin David, 2014. "On the information and communication technologies - productivity nexus: a long-lasting adjustment period," EconomiX Working Papers 2014-60, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
  47. Prata, Ricardo & Carvalho, Pedro M.S., 2018. "Self-supply and regulated tariffs: Dynamic equilibria between photovoltaic market evolution and rate structures to ensure network sustainability," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 111-123.
  48. Shayegh, Soheil & Sanchez, Daniel L. & Caldeira, Ken, 2017. "Evaluating relative benefits of different types of R&D for clean energy technologies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 532-538.
  49. Christopher L. Magee & Tessaleno C. Devezas, 2016. "A Simple extension of Dematerialization Theory: Incorporation of Technical Progress and the Rebound Effect," Papers 1602.00090, arXiv.org.
  50. Das, Saptarshi & Hittinger, Eric & Williams, Eric, 2020. "Learning is not enough: Diminishing marginal revenues and increasing abatement costs of wind and solar," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 634-644.
  51. Gilmore, Elisabeth A. & Blohm, Andrew & Sinsabaugh, Steven, 2014. "An economic and environmental assessment of transporting bulk energy from a grazing ocean thermal energy conversion facility," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 361-367.
  52. Christopher L Benson & Christopher L Magee, 2015. "Quantitative Determination of Technological Improvement from Patent Data," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(4), pages 1-23, April.
  53. Abdulla Kaya & Denes Csala & Sgouris Sgouridis, 2017. "Constant elasticity of substitution functions for energy modeling in general equilibrium integrated assessment models: a critical review and recommendations," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 145(1), pages 27-40, November.
  54. Magee, C.L. & Basnet, S. & Funk, J.L. & Benson, C.L., 2016. "Quantitative empirical trends in technical performance," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 237-246.
  55. Kavlak, Goksin & McNerney, James & Trancik, Jessika E., 2018. "Evaluating the causes of cost reduction in photovoltaic modules," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 700-710.
  56. Nicolas Schmid & Leonore Haelg & Sebastian Sewerin & Tobias S. Schmidt & Irina Simmen, 2021. "Governing complex societal problems: The impact of private on public regulation through technological change," Regulation & Governance, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 15(3), pages 840-855, July.
  57. Erin Baker & Olaitan Olaleye & Lara Aleluia Reis, 2015. "Decision Frameworks and the Investment in R&D," Working Papers 2015.42, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  58. Ding, H. & Zhou, D.Q. & Liu, G.Q. & Zhou, P., 2020. "Cost reduction or electricity penetration: Government R&D-induced PV development and future policy schemes," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
  59. Simone Vannuccini & Ekaterina Prytkova, 2021. "Artificial Intelligence’s New Clothes? From General Purpose Technology to Large Technical System," SPRU Working Paper Series 2021-02, SPRU - Science Policy Research Unit, University of Sussex Business School.
  60. Heinrich, Torsten, 2016. "The Narrow and the Broad Approach to Evolutionary Modeling in Economics," MPRA Paper 75797, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  61. Gruetzemacher, Ross & Dorner, Florian E. & Bernaola-Alvarez, Niko & Giattino, Charlie & Manheim, David, 2021. "Forecasting AI progress: A research agenda," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
  62. Tibebu, Tiruwork B. & Hittinger, Eric & Miao, Qing & Williams, Eric, 2021. "What is the optimal subsidy for residential solar?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
  63. Zhang, Guanglu & McAdams, Daniel A. & Shankar, Venkatesh & Darani, Milad Mohammadi, 2017. "Modeling the evolution of system technology performance when component and system technology performances interact: Commensalism and amensalism," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 116-124.
  64. Few, Sheridan & Schmidt, Oliver & Offer, Gregory J. & Brandon, Nigel & Nelson, Jenny & Gambhir, Ajay, 2018. "Prospective improvements in cost and cycle life of off-grid lithium-ion battery packs: An analysis informed by expert elicitations," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 578-590.
  65. Patrick Planing, 2017. "On the origin of innovations—the opportunity vacuum as a conceptual model for the explanation of innovation," Journal of Innovation and Entrepreneurship, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 1-18, December.
  66. Wei, Max & Smith, Sarah Josephine & Sohn, Michael D., 2017. "Non-constant learning rates in retrospective experience curve analyses and their correlation to deployment programs," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 356-369.
  67. J. Farmer & Cameron Hepburn & Penny Mealy & Alexander Teytelboym, 2015. "A Third Wave in the Economics of Climate Change," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 62(2), pages 329-357, October.
  68. Benson, Christopher L. & Magee, Christopher L., 2014. "On improvement rates for renewable energy technologies: Solar PV, wind turbines, capacitors, and batteries," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 745-751.
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